Berlusconi holding Italy Hostage

A brilliant article on Berlusconi and the sorrow state of Italy by Tim Sparks can be read HERE

A brief summary below:

Vote me out of jail, or I will bring the country down with me. This, essentially, is the message Silvio Berlusconi—four-time prime minister, owner of the country’s three main commercial TV channels, criminal defendant many times over—has just sent to the Italian government, one that clarifies at last the exact nature of what is at stake in Italy at the present moment: is this a modern state where the rule of law prevails or is it the fiefdom of an institutionalized outlaw?

After a dozen trials, many of which have gone through all three levels of Italian justice (primary trial, appeal, counter appeal), after making ad personam laws to have his crimes de-penalized, or using delaying tactics to have trials thrown out because the crimes alleged in them are time-barred, or facing guilty verdicts at one level and acquittals at another, Berlusconi has finally received a definitive and unappealable criminal sentence at the highest level, for tax fraud in the region of €7 million ($9 million) and for the creation of a slush fund of some €280 million ($375 million). Sentenced to four years in prison, he has benefited from a pardon aimed at emptying the country’s jails, which has reduced the sentence to one year—this despite the fact that, being over seventy, he will be allowed to serve his sentence at one of his various luxury homes. However, as an elected member of the senate, he enjoys immunity from arrest and cannot be forced into confinement until the senate approves his expulsion, a vote that could take place in September. He has now made it clear that if that vote goes against him he will bring the whole house down.

Italy is facing a EU bailout within 6 months

While the Italian press is rife with big headlines on Berlusconi's clusterfuck and his conviction  to seven years in prison and a lifetime ban on holding public office; the italian economy is deteriorating faster and faster.
The Italian government is giving few signs of intelligent life and treasury investors are starting to lose patience.
All things considered is not surprising that Mediobanca, Italy’s second biggest bank, said its “index of solvency risk” for Italy was already flashing red as the worldwide bond rout continued into a second week, pushing up borrowing costs.

The report warned that Italy will “inevitably end up in an EU bail-out request” over the next six months, unless it can count on low borrowing costs and a broader recovery.

As Ambrose Evans Pritchard noted:

“Time is running out fast,” said Mediobanca’s top analyst, Antonio Guglielmi, in a confidential client note. “The Italian macro situation has not improved over the last quarter, rather the contrary. Some 160 large corporates in Italy are now in special crisis administration.”

Italy’s €2.1 trillion (£1.8 trillion) debt is the world’s third largest after the US and Japan. Any serious stress in its debt markets threatens to reignite the eurozone crisis. This may already have begun after the US Federal Reserve signalled last week that it will begin to drain dollar liquidity from the global system.

The ECB has already backed away from earlier plans to steer credit to small businesses in the Club Med bloc. The Italian banking association said it was bitterly disappointed by the latest break down in eurozone talks on a banking union, warning that it leaves Italy’s lenders at the mercy of a confidence crisis.

Andrew Roberts from RBS said the world has become “a dangerous place” as Fed tightening marks an inflexion point in global liquidity.

Borrowing costs of 5pc could prove crippling for Spain and Italy, both suffering from contraction of nominal GDP.

Mediobanca said the trigger for a blow-up in Italy could be a bail-out crisis for Slovenia or an ugly turn of events in Argentina, which has close links to Italian business. “Argentina in particular worries us, as a new default seems likely.”

Mr Guglielmi said Italy’s industrial output has slumped 25pc from its peak in the past decade, while disposable income has dropped 9pc and house sales have dropped to 1985 levels.

The 1992 crisis was defused by a large devaluation, allowing Italy to restore trade competitiveness at a stroke. Mediobanca said: “The euro straitjacket is clearly not providing a similar currency flexibility today. With the lira devaluation Italy managed to inflate debt away, which it cannot do today. It could take more than 10 years to revert to pre-crisis output levels.

It is Bunga Bunga all over again!

With the election confirmed today by the Senate of the new Italian government Berlusconi has managed to place himself in power once again. 

No wonder that Berlusconi is having a very good time these days; with two trials pending and a new government controlled by him, he has managed again to shield himself from going to jail. 

The old fox has outwitted his antagonists once again.

Beyond the politics of the moment Italy though is besieged by a very serious crisis.

As the various central banks dump money into the system, the yields on Italian sovereign debt have gone down but this does not change the economic difficulties.

The official debt to GDP ratio is 136% but the actual number is somewhere around 280% which is unsustainable by any measure.

Italy's Real GDP is back to 1990s levels practically erasing any growth accumulated in the last 10 years.

The Italian banking system is also in dire straits.

Italian banks are seeing a sharp deterioration in the quality of their assets. The rate of acceleration in newly impaired loans is staggering as it appears the current recession, driven by falling internal demand, is more insidious than the export-led crisis in 2009.

And no matter how the Italian banks try to differentiate their bad loan composition, it is an ugly picture.

The Italian House Price Index (IPAB) decreased 4.6% YOY as a result of tightening credit conditions, new property taxes and a difficult macro environment.

Italy's industrial base has one important peculiarity: 95% of companies have under nine employees. In fact the average is four. They are micro companies and as such, their balance sheet is modest and so is their ability to withstand prolonged contraction in demand (external or domestic depending on the line of business).

Italy has a second important peculiarity. It has significant household financial wealth and an aging population, including a high average age of entrepreneurs.
This implies that on the margin more entrepreneurs are likely to decide to scale back operations as expected profitability has diminished due to weak turnover, high red tape and growing fiscal burden.

On the margin, opting for early retirement looks like an increasingly appealing option.
Be it because of severe balance sheet pressures or because of less attractive future returns, the economy is losing productive capacity at a disturbingly high pace.

But despite private wealth and assets the public sector is quite close to going over the cliff.

Italy’s difficult position was enumerated in a Bank of Italy report to parliament last week which said the economy was going through its most acute crisis since World War II. Economic output last year was nearly 7% below that of 2007, while disposable incomes had fallen 9.5%. Industrial production had collapsed by 25% over five years, while the building sector shrank 22%. Unemployment had nearly doubled to 11.7% the Italian central bank said.

In the meanwhile Berlusconi's ratings are at an all time high, his PDL party in the latest polls is showing an increased popularity eroding support at PD and MS5.

Simply wondering if the Italian people are completely deluded or simply insane, I propend for the second option!

“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”

 

Italy political chaos reach new highs with president re-election!

Italy, which has devolved into total political chaos since the February 25th inconclusive elections has managed to re-elect the current president Giorgio Napolitano for a second consecutive 7 year term. 
So if not a prime minister, the country at least has a president.
There is one problem: Napolitano is 87 years old.
Perhaps the prospect of a 95 year old president in 7 years is precisely the the kind of stamina and  impetus the country needs to shift its economy into overdrive!


Yet while the presidential election was largely a farce, it is the problems in Italy's Democratic Party (PD) that are now center stage, following what appears to be a complete implosion in the party.

From Reuters:

Center-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani announced his resignation on Friday after party rebels sabotaged two separate candidates he had backed for state president, deepening Italy's political chaos.

Bersani told a meeting of parliamentarians he would quit as Democratic Party (PD) leader as soon as the election of the next head of state was completed, following two dramatic days of parliamentary voting in which successive center-left candidates were scuppered in secret ballots.

"He accepted his responsibility after the disgrace of what happened," Paolo Gentiloni, a senior Democratic Party parliamentary deputy said after Bersani's announcement.

Then disarray in the center-left, which has the most seats in parliament, could make a snap election in the summer more likely to end the political deadlock, but there is no clarity about the next moves after weeks of chaos.

It is unclear who will take over leadership of the badly split party but Bersani's departure could clear the way for arch-rival Matteo Renzi, the dynamic 38-year-old mayor of Florence, to take over.

Bersani's announcement came shortly after former Prime Minister Romano Prodi announced he was pulling out of the race for president after more than 100 center-left electors disobeyed Bersani's instructions to vote for him in parliament.

It was the last of a series of humiliating setbacks for Bersani and blunders that have shredded his ability to hold the center-left bloc together.

The collapse of efforts to secure the presidency for Prodi, a respected international figure, underlined the deep fractures running through politics in a country still seeking a government nearly two months after February's inconclusive general election.

"The politicians should be ashamed of what they're doing to the country. Today we're seeing a level of irresponsibility that goes beyond all limits," said Diego Della Valle, head of shoe group Tod's, one of Italy's most successful clothing companies.

The biggest winner as a result of all of the above? Silvio Berlusconi of course!
Since Berlusconi's star seems on the rise again I thought to follow the BBC track and highlight some of his most enlightened words such as these:

"I am without doubt the person who's been the most persecuted in the entire history of the world and the history of man."

"In my opinion, and not only mine, I am the best prime minister we can find today."

Previously, on the same theme: "I am the Jesus Christ of politics. I am a patient victim, I put up with everyone, I sacrifice myself for everyone."

"The best political leader in Europe and in the world."

"There is no-one on the world stage who can compete with me."

"Out of love for Italy, I felt I had to save it from the left."

"The right man in the right job."

"I don't need to go into office for the power. I have houses all over the world, stupendous boats... beautiful airplanes, a beautiful wife, a beautiful family... I am making a sacrifice."

"In Italy I am almost seen as German for my workaholism. Also I am from Milan, the city where people work the hardest. Work, work, work - I am almost German."

And to put current Italian events into context it is worth quoting Benito Mussolini:

Democracy is talking itself to death. The people do not know what they want; they do not know what is the best for them. There is too much foolishness, too much lost motion. I have stopped the talk and the nonsense. I am a man of action. Democracy is beautiful in theory; in practice it is a fallacy.

Italian Elections increase doubts over long term reforms

Italians head to the polls on February 24-25 and never before the political scenario has been so chaotic and appalling.

We are witnessing new political movements like the 5 Stars movement climbing up to third place in a matter of months and never before we have seen Germany actively entering the Italian political debate to try and keep Berlusconi at bay.

 

All this is adding up to financial uncertainty on the future of Italy and at large of the Eurozone.

Pier Luigi Bersani, who heads the centre-left PD was considered the assumed new prime minister just a few short weeks ago, at least in the Chamber (the lower house of parliament).

It's all up in the air now as Silvio Berlusconi's PDL has staged a massive rally in the polls.

Berlusconi has been on a rampage lately blaming Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel for the unemployment problems in Italy, promising to refund the hated IMU (property tax) and more exotically declaring that tax evasion is justified.

Beppe Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) which has been largely ignored in the Italian press has been wildly popular at rallies. Grillo has a chance to come in second place.

Mario Monti, who heads the centrist Con Monti per l’Italia (With Monti for Italy) coalition, is running a very distant 4th.

Poll Blackouts

Officially, pollsters cannot post poll results in a blackout period before the election. That blackout period started February 9. Below Reuters' 8th of February polls.



Those results are misleading because they do not include undecided voters, and the undecided vote is a very large 20-25 percent!

With such little difference between Berlusconi and Bersani, and with huge rallies for Beppe Grillo and Berlusconi, any outcome is possible.

Germany Warns Against Berlusconi

Of potentially more importance, Berlin Warns Italians against Berlusconi

Here are a few examples from the story.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reportedly said (but later denied) "Silvio Berlusconi may be an effective campaign strategist, but my advice to the Italians is not to make the same mistake again by re-electing him."

Polenz, a senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, said: "Italy needs political leaders who stand for the future. Berlusconi is certainly not one of them."

One Italian bank even went so far this week as to issue a report arguing that a Berlusconi election would almost certainly force the country to apply for emergency bailout aid from the EU. Mediobanca, Italy's largest investment bank, wrote that "a last-minute Berlusconi victory would scare the market sufficiently to put pressure on the spread."

"Silvio the Savior"

Spiegel reports Berlusconi's Faithful: 'Only Silvio Can Save Italy'

Adoration of Berlusconi in Italy remains widespread. In the parallel universe occupied by his followers, there is no room for doubt about Berlusconi and lines are clearly drawn. Silvio is good and the others are bad.

These fans gather at his speeches, like the Saturday rally in Palermo, where thousands crowded into the venerable Teatro Politeama. There were women in long fur coats and fine gentlemen in three-piece suits. Dock workers like Ferrante squeezed with them through the entrance, everyone pushing and shoving each other like adolescents at a rock concert. The hundreds who didn't make it in must stand outside.

Fully a quarter of Italians are prepared to vote for Berlusconi again. It is an astounding degree of homage paid to man who faces allegations of abuse of power and bribery; who faces the scandal surrounding the underage escort Karima el-Marough, alias Ruby Rubacuori; who has been blasted for blatantly misogynistic comments; and who broke many promises as prime minister. Instead, the opposition, left-leaning judges and even the Germans are blamed for all that is not right with Italy.

At best, Bersani will win the Chamber and lose the Senate. That would likely result in a hung parliament.

Anti-German sentiment in Italy is high already. The entrance of German politicians into the battle may fuel that sentiment in a major way.

It is conceivable "Silvio the Savior" pulls off a stunning upset win in both the Chamber and Senate, but a Senate victory would still require a coalition (no party will come close to a majority).

It may be difficult if not impossible for any party to form a Senate coalition if Monti's party does poorly as expected.

Regardless Berlusconi there seems to be no good outcome for Italy.

Italian politics reaching new level of corruption

While the International Press is rightly blaming the Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy for a lavish consumption of alcohol in time of austerity.

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his advisers often consume more than 1,000 euros ($1,286) of alcoholic drinks when they fly on the government’s official jet, Interviu magazine reported in its Sept. 24 issue.

For Italians though, to waste 1000 euro on beer is merely a drop in the ocean of waste the Italian government is accostumed to.
Latest case, Italy's Ambassador to London, Giorgio Maria Economides decided to replace a simple Lancia with license plate "ITA 1" with a more artistic Maserati (shown below in front of the Embassy) at the bargain price of $200.000:




Way to go Ambassador in representing a broke country with class and style!

We must admit though that Italian politicians at home are far classier than our Ambassador in London.
Today Mr. Fiorito, the Regional Leader of the PDL (Berlusconi's party) has been arrested in Rome for embezzlement, he ransacked 1.3 million euro from the Region of Lazio for his many private pleasures, he was not alone 70+ more councillors did the same with public money.

Last week the Governor of Lazio, Polverini resigned after it was found that for more than 2 years the entire council of the Region of Lazio was hell-bent on spending public money like if there was no tomorrow.
The estimate is that in 2 years they spent over 30 million euro.
Some of the most interesting expenses are the following:

14000 euro in a wineshop
16000 euro to pay private electricity bills in arrears

thousands more paid for unspecified "collaboration services" to the fiancee of Mr. Fiorito
5000 euro dinners 
Toga Parties paid with public money: photos here
Hookers
Trips for councillors and lovers/hookers to exotic locations
Houses and Villas
Jeeps bought on the occasion of a rare snow storm in Rome

and much much more...

This is not an isolate case many more regions in Italy are facing the same scrutiny and new stories are surfacing on the Italian press each week.

Last week the Region of Piedmont has been searched by investigators after the discovery that all the regional councillors have requested refunds for travels and activities even during the summer stop of the regional Council.
The best part is that regions do not check if true what declared, it was enough for a councillor to say he travelled 5000 miles in one month to obtain refunds amounting to tens of thousands of euros per month.
For those interested in reading the full details here a link to published data

Although, let us not fool ourselves, this is NOT an attempt to clean up the house, this is action pointing to strike political forces and push them to accept another Monti term or at least to be servile when it comes to vote and accept the Prime Minister diktats.

Italy is between a rock and a hard place, Italian politics is rotten, diseased and inept at ruling the country, hell-bent as it is in ransacking public money for their private interests. They have no credibility left but they are still useful to Monti being discreditable and therefore prone to manipulation.
On the other side, an un-elected prime minister is ruling the country with no public consent and following EU diktats not ratified by the people.
Italians are being told that politicians are scum and they are unable to rule therefore an enlightened technician has to take control.

What if next elections will bring to another rotten parliament or a fragmented one unable to form a government?
Are we going to ask again Monti to rule the country because our politicians are unable to do it?
Are we going to suspend again the right of the people to decide of their future?
Would this still be a democracy?

Bunga is Back!

Our Bunga buddy is back, warming up for the soon coming Italian circus of dancers, pimps, crooks and wise guys (i.e. Italian elections in May); here he is again blessing us with his wisdom:

• *BERLUSCONI SAYS EURO A `SCAM' WITHOUT CENTRAL BANK BACKING IT
• *BERLUSCONI SAYS GERMANY LEAVING EURO WOULDN'T BE A TRAGEDY
• *BERLUSCONI: BAILOUT CONDITIONS WOULD LEAD ECONOMY TO COLLAPSE
• *BERLUSCONI SAYS ITALY RISKS HEADING TOWARD 'ENDLESS CRISIS'

It appears he has a new plan (Allow Germany to leave) and start the printing press to inflate the country out in thin air while sedating the population with horny shows and lame soap operas.
Vote Bunga!

Europe's 10 most dangerous politicians

Der Spiegel has published an article about Europe's 10 Most Dangerous Politicians although some of those names are certainly interesting choices up to you to decide if more worthy names deserve to be in this list. Let me know what you think!

Top 10 List

1. Markus Söder, Bavarian Finance Minister: The politician from the Christian Social Union, the conservative sister party to Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, is known for his tub-thumping rhetoric and has stepped up a gear in the euro crisis with vitriolic comments about Greece. "An example must be made of Athens, that this euro zone can show teeth," he told the Bild am Sonntag tabloid newspaper this week.
2. Alexis Tsipras, the leader of Greece's leftist Syriza party: In his latest proposal, Tsipras argues the Greek government should refuse to talk to the so-called troika comprised of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He wants to "criminalize" the privatization of public enterprises. He has been labelled the "most dangerous man in Europe" since he became leader of the radical left and has been pressuring successive governments to abandon austerity measures that underpin Greece's continued access to international aid.
3. Silvio Berlusconi, entrepreneur and former Italian prime minister: His Popolo della Libertà (People of Freedom) party supports current Prime Minister Mario Monti but is secretly preparing for Italian elections next year. Berlusconi wants to win a fifth term as prime minister with the help of populist anti-euro rhetoric. He recently said the Italian central bank should simply print more euros to avoid instructions from Brussels. He has also threatened to reintroduce the lira.
4. Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right Front National in France: The populist politician campaigned in this year's presidential election by warning about the supposed might of the EU. "Frau Merkel and her friends, Van Rompuy and the European Commission are in the final stages of creating a European Soviet Union," she thundered. "We are about to lose our status as a free nation."
5. Timo Soini, leader of the True Finns party and a member of the European Parliament: Since the election, Finland has demanded that Greece provide collateral in return for Finnish aid. Soini wants that aid to stop. "Not a penny more," he says. "We've paid enough."
6. Alexander Dobrindt, general secretary of the conservative Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU): "It's the end of the line for Greece," Dobrindt said recently. Previously, he had demanded that the Greek government should no longer pay its civil servants and pensioners in euros but in drachmas.
7. Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and a member of the European Parliament: Farage is the man who can cause an uproar in the otherwise dull European Parliament, where he called the Lisbon Treaty "the most spectacular, bureaucratic coup d'etat that the world had ever seen." He has described European Council President Herman Van Rompuy as having the "charisma of a damp rag."
8. Heinz-Christian Strache, head of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ): Strache claims that the permanent euro bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), will destroy "not only our state, but also our democracy and constitution." He says the ESM is tantamount to an ´Ermächtigungsgesetz, an allusion to the 1933 German law that allowed Hitler to rise to power.
9. Geert Wilders, head of the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV): Wilders wants to see the return of the Dutch guilder and described the ESM as "a dictate from Brussels."
10. Viktor Orbán, Hungarian prime minister: Orbán's statement that he would bow to Brussels' power but not to its arguments created considerable irritation.

Spain Debt Explosion and Italy's Democracy Implosion

Spain Debt Explosion

Spanish authorities had to come to reality with the regional debt time bomb. It was known that spanish debt was far bigger than their current official data suggested.
Today's news, via the WSJ, confirm that the Spanish government may take over some regions' finances, in an attempt to shore up investor confidence (just as Ireland did with its banks and we know how well that worked out?)
This leaves Spain's Debt/GDP nearer 135% than its 'official' 68.5%.
The WSJ notes comments from a top government official that "there will soon be new tools to control regional spending" and that they may take over at least one of the country's cash-strapped regions this year.  The simple truth as acknowledged by Rajoy is that Spain has lost the trust of financial markets.
It seems that CDS markets have been ahead of the reality in Spain's true credit situation as it is perhaps a little easier to manipulate a few regional bonds than an entire sovereign CDS market.
The velocity of the most recent move suggests some short-term action by the politicians/ECB soon enough though their failed attempt today suggests the wholesale exit of real money is a hole too big for even the ECB to comfortably fill.

Italy's Democracy Implosion

In the meanwhile Monti's government in Italy is starting a crusade against political parties, it has been now some weeks that media have been bombarding the Italian political parties on the corruption issue.
Admirable effort indeed, pity that all Italian newspapers have discovered the rotten state of Italian affairs only 2 weeks ago when an Independentist party Lega Nord which has been shouting for decades its slogan of "Roman Crooks" has been discovered to run multiple fraud and embezzlement operations effectively stealing taxpayer money to cover audacious financial gambles in exotic places as far as Tanzania.

Before Monti government this story would have not even risen eyebrows today is enough to start calls for a major purge of political parties via erasing the public financing that keep them alive.

Let us be clear all Italian parties are corrupted and rotten and what the Lega did has been done by everyone else as a normal practice.

What Italy is facing though is a big illusion, thinking that all this is happening to clean up the country of corrupt and useless politicians is the perfect ruse for the angered and frustrated Italian citizen crying for the blood of those guilty to bring the country to bankruptcy.

Yes, Italian politicians are guilty of betraying the country for their petty interests, as guilty as the Italian citizens who supported them blindly in exchange for favours and the promise of an undeserved job or a blind eye to their stealing and defrauding.

What though is not highlighted by anyone are the real motives behind all this.

This is an attempt to get rid of political parties completely or weaken them to such a state that they will abandon even the slightest opposition to whatever Monti want to do with the country.
This has been happening already since Berlusconi's majority is still in the Parliament approving laws being passed by Monti.
Nonetheless austerity laws are eroding support to parties fast, and some parties have started to raise their voice against Monti fearing a total loss of public support. The most loud protests, surprise, surprise were coming from the Lega and we know how it ended.
Next step for Monti will be to cut the parties' life support, which is public financing, money given to parties by the state and that allow them to operate, once removed the public financing, political parties will be dead and an already ailing democracy will be buried in favour of a soft dictatorship. 
Deserved end for the politicians, not so much for the younger generations that will pay the price.

Has Italy Gone Fascist?

Form Zero Hedge, worth reading!


Has Italy Gone Fascist?

In August this year, CLSA’s Russell Napier wrote: “Italy is scary – yields will rise when governments chose to take money from their savers – what Russell calls THE GREAT THEFT - Expect massive capital flight”.  Yet while Russell was commenting on Italy’s opening move in repressing private capital by raising the capital gains tax, but not on gains of government debt, the situation has moved with such speed over the past 5 months that the emergence of the first Fascist regime following the 2008 crisis can probably now be associated with the new Monti government.
It may be time for Italian to get themselves as well as their capital even faster out of Pizzaland.
Here are the latest developments which are coming in at extraordinary speed:

• The appointment in December of an unelected government. This government has no accountability and no fixed time mandate. It is being sold as being “technocratic”, but is in fact headed by a University Professor who is distinguished for: (i) having been head of the EU Internal Market Commission, where he used the power of the State to fine Microsoft and other corporate that were “getting too big for their boots”;(ii) being a good friend of Romano Prodi, another University Professor from the Communist  heartland of the University of Bologna and creator of the Euro (more on him later);(iii) a paid hand of Goldman Sachs and a friend of Mario Draghi, another Goldman puppet who dispatched of the government of Berlusconi within days of taking the helm of the ECB; (iv) a fervent believer in the pre-eminence of the state over the individual;

• Prodi, the original architect of this catastrophe, famously made this comment in 2001, indicating that this cabal of Professors are playing a very long game indeed:

I am sure the Euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”

Romano Prodi, EU Commission President, December 2001

• Thanks to his friendship with Monti and the current government, he is very much still involved in shaping just what such instruments can be;

• The passing of an extraordinary edict making cash transactions of more than Euro 1,000 illegal (not subject to reporting – just plain illegal). Following Prodi’s own desire, the existing regime has indicated that this level will be progressively reduced to a limit as low as Euro 300. Hence cash is maybe for the first time in history no longer legal tender (over Euro 1,000, for now);
• A requirement that credit card companies report all transactions carried out by Italians, in Italy and abroad to the fiscal authorities;
• Delays and refusals by banks in allowing customers to withdraw  cash balances of as little as Euro 10,000;
• Finance Police has placed cameras at the physical borders with Switzerland (see below) to register all license plates. In addition, currency-sniffing dogs have been deployed at the border (http://www.cdt.ch/ticino-e-regioni/cronaca/56250/fiscovelox-riapparsi-no...).

Events in Italy must be watched closely.
And while Russell Napier (correctly) foresees capital controls being imposed and suggested that one parks his cash in Singapore dollars, Italians may want to get themselves out as well before the current group of Professors slams the gates shut. Things are moving even faster than one of the world’s leading financial historians could foresee.

Save Italy!

Finally Italy appears to be ready to pass an austerity package just 6 months after it became the next domino tile in the Euro collapse.
Measure to be approved before the end of the week are the following:

1. Raise more than 10 billion euros from a new property tax
2. Impose a new tax on luxury items like yachts
3. Raise value added tax
4. Crack down on tax evasion
5. Increase the pension age

The above package was dubbed the "Save Italy" package by Prime Minister Mario Monti. Supposedly it will boost growth.

While I agree pension reform is much needed, there is not a single thing in the package to boost growth. Italy is in recession. Raising taxes in a recession is the last thing you want to do, yet four of Monti's five ideas raise taxes.

This proposal may temporarily placate the bond market, but Italy is headed for one "super recession"
Italy needs to cut wasteful government spending which is totally out of control but at this stage Monti unfortunately still need support of cronies and corrupt politicians who would sink Italy rather than lose their entrenched priviliges and wasteful spending which is supporting their cronies.
Monti has been appointed by the EU (aka France and Germany) to ransack the private wealth in order to cover foreign bank losses but still need every single piece of law to be approved by the same corrupt parliament which was supporting Berlusconi just weeks ago.
It will be a long friction war and hopes for a real reform of the country are far from being realized in the actual situation, market punishment will occasionally remind politicians of who is really in charge in Italy but deep reforms with this political class still with voting power are an illusion.
Money can be found only where no vested interests are present, therefore unfortunately once again the unrepresented and marginalized will pay the steepest price to this crisis.

Economist on Italy

 Below an excerpt from The Economist Special Report on Italy, worth reading to understand how the problem is not merely financial but deeply embedded in the rotten state of Italian