Oil shocks and economic recessions
Here a summary of oil market disruptions and economic downturns since the Second World War. Every recession (with one exception) was preceded by an increase in oil prices, and every oil market disruption (with one exception) was followed by an economic recession.
| Gasoline shortages | Price increase | Price controls | Key factors | Business cycle peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 47-Dec 47 | Nov 47-Jan 48 (37%) | no (threatened) | strong demand, supply constraints | Nov 48 |
| May 52 | Jun 53 (10%) | yes | strike, controls lifted | Jul 53 |
| Nov 56-Dec 56 (Europe) | Jan 57-Feb 57 (9%) | yes (Europe) | Suez Crisis | Aug 57 |
| none | none | no | --- | Apr 60 |
| none | Feb 69 (7%) Nov 70 (8%) | no | strike, strong demand, supply constraints | Dec 69 |
| Jun 73 Dec 73-Mar 74 | Apr 73-Sep 73 (16%) Nov 73-Feb 74 (51%) | yes | strong demand, supply constraints, OAPEC embargo | Nov 73 |
| May 79-Jul 79 | May 79-Jan 80 (57%) | yes | Iranian revolution | Jan 80 |
| none | Nov 80-Feb 81 (45%) | yes | Iran-Iraq War, controls lifted | Jul 81 |
| none | Aug 90-Oct 90 (93%) | no | Gulf War I | Jul 90 |
| none | Dec 99-Nov 00 (38%) | no | strong demand | Mar 01 |
| none | Nov 02-Mar 03 (28%) | no | Venezuela unrest, Gulf War II | none |
| none | Feb 07-Jun 08 (145%) | no | strong demand, stagnant supply | Dec 07 |
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