Italy has reached a point of no return

To summarize the horrific state of things in Italy, below a summary of key points from Barclay Capitals following the announcement of LCH which has raised the charges effectively putting Italy in a death spiral.


Summary from Barclays Capital:

1) At this point, it seems Italy is now mathematically beyond point of no return
2) While reforms are necessary, in and of itself not be enough to prevent crisis
3) Reason? Simple math--growth and austerity not enough to offset cost of debt
4) On our ests, yields above 5.5% is inflection point where game is over
5) The danger:high rates reinforce stability concerns, leading to higher rates
6) and deeper conviction of a self sustaining credit event and eventual default
7) We think decisions at eurozone summit is step forward but EFSF not adequate
8) Time has run out--policy reforms not sufficient to break neg mkt dynamics
9) Investors do not have the patience to wait for austerity, growth to work
10) And rate of change in negatives not enuff to offset slow drip of positives
11) Conclusion: We think ECB needs to step up to the plate, print and buy bonds
12) At the moment ECB remains unwilling to be lender last resort on scale needed
13) But frankly will have hand forced by market given massive systemic risk

According the note below from the LCH website, deposit charges on Italian bonds will almost double effective close today (Wednesday November 9th). The details can be found here.

*LCH COMMENTS ON ITALY BOND DEPOSIT CHARGES IN WEBSITE DOCUMENT

LCH Raises Deposit Charge on 10-Yr Bonds to 11.65% From 6.65%

UK banks running out of the Eurozone

An article from the Telegraph revealed today that UK banks are abandoning the Euro zone to protect their investments from the incoming collapse of Greece, another warning signal of the dismal situation in the Euro area and a clear signal of how the markets are convinced that all the reassurances of the ECB and EU are merely words not being supported by facts. Quite day on the Euro front this Sunday in preparation of the incoming storm next week.


Excerpt from The Telegraph:

Senior sources have revealed that leading banks, including Barclays and Standard Chartered, have radically reduced the amount of unsecured lending they are prepared to make available to eurozone banks, raising the prospect of a new credit crunch for the European banking system.

Standard Chartered is understood to have withdrawn tens of billions of pounds from the eurozone inter-bank lending market in recent months and cut its overall exposure by two-thirds in the past few weeks as it has become increasingly worried about the finances of other European banks.

Barclays has also cut its exposure in recent months as senior managers have become increasingly concerned about developments among banks with large exposures to the troubled European countries Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy and Portugal.

In its interim management statement, published in April, Barclays reported a wholesale exposure to Spain of £6.4bn, compared with £7.2bn last June, while its exposure to Italy has fallen by more than £100m.

One source said it was “inevitable” that British banks would look to minimise their potential losses in the event the eurozone crisis were to get worse. “Everyone wants to ensure that they are not badly affected by the crisis,” said one bank executive.

Moves by stronger banks to cut back their lending to weaker banks is reminiscent of the build-up to the financial crisis in 2008, when the refusal of banks to lend to one another led to a seizing-up of the markets that eventually led to the collapse of several major banks and taxpayer bail-outs of many more.