EU Meeting Update

The release of the Troika report seemed to bring events this weekend in Europe to an early halt, according to SudDeutsche.

The Telegraph reports on some choice turns-of-phrase among the leading players, our favorite being:

"It was grim. The worst mood I have ever seen, a complete mess," said one eurozone finance minister.

SudDeutsche reports was in the Troika debt sustainability report (via Google Translate).

The numbers that the Troika on Friday evening on the debt situation in Greece is presented, have altered the agenda of the Euro-Finance completely. Really wanted the department heads to advise [if] they need to convince the country's private creditors to agree on a bigger discount on the bonds held by them, than the previously planned 21 percent.

But the "if" was suddenly a "how high?". Because the inspectors of the Greek lender describe in their "debt sustainability report," a scenario that far surpasses any fears. The country needs even under "normal" conditions, so if everything goes as planned with the reforming and saving, at least 252 billion euros , by 2020 to get back on its feet.

If the economy collapses further, state enterprises can not be privatized as hoped, nor do the reforms [produce the] € 444 billion needed to [please] the inspectors. So it is suddenly clear: the euro rescue fund EFSF is hardly sufficient for more countries to save, and his successor, the latest from 2013 operational ESM also not good.

Furthermore:


"It is clear that a substantial debt cut is necessary," however, said Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg....

The Exchequer George Osborne sharply criticized the actions of the euro partners: "The crisis in the euro-zone causes major damage in many European economies, including Britain," he shouted in Brussels, adding: "We have had enough of short-term measures, it is enough ... with measures that bring us through the next few weeks. " Europe must tackle the causes of the crisis.

... The Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn announced immediately to resist. "What we need now is rest and no whip," he said.

A stronger economic cooperation is also possible on the basis of existing treaties. "It is important that we do not open another front," said Asselborn. "It can not be that domestic political considerations of even the greatest country outweigh everything."

It was clear that the reality of the size of loan required to 'solve' Greece alone will likely leave the cupboard bare:

Jan Kees de Jager, the Dutch finance minister, told colleagues: "We've got to get real. People are talking about new defences but with one gulp the whole €440 billion could be gone, leaving the eurozone with no protection at all."

Schaeuble-to-Everyone:

According to insiders, Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany's finance minister, could not resist taking an "I told you so" approach - he had been, after all, the first to call for an "orderly" default for Greece 18 months ago, at a time when the cost of such a move was less than one third of the price today.
"Schaeuble is a man who does not mince his words, whose reputation for harshness and arrogance is well earned. He was, frankly, unbearable," said one diplomat.

And Baroin (France) to IMF swiftly followed by Lagarde (France/IMF)'s slapdown:

Francois Baroin, the young and inexperienced French finance minister,
attempted to hit back, complaining that the IMF's default medicine would hit
France the hardest; the country's banks are highly exposed and could
threaten its "untouchable" AAA rating.

But Mrs Lagarde, who had held his post until taking up the IMF job this
summer, "shut him up" by brandishing the report and pointing to it
its detailed figures. "She really slapped him down - and in perfect
English too, a language he cannot speak," said a diplomat.

We suspect many of the attendees (finance ministers) have not actually spoken to one another, read any serious research, or even attempted to comprehend the whole-versus-the-single sub-optimal decisions they face (until very recently) as their voluminous outbursts were incredible:

"Their shouting could be heard down the corridor in the concert hall where an orchestra was about to play the EU's anthem, Ode to Joy," said an incredulous EU official.

It did not stop there as the pointlessness of the meeting was highlighted as it became increasingly clear that the good old Franco-German comradeship may be fraying at the core and at the edges and without them.

Finance ministers - including George Osborne, the Chancellor - expressed frustration on Saturday that their emergency meeting could take no decisions of substance until Mrs Merkel and Mr Sarkozy had buried the hatchet.

"This Ecofin meeting has been reduced to an academic seminar, an exercise with absolutely no purpose," complained one finance minister. 

Paying the price

The third episode of Meltdown looks at how the victims of the 2008 financial crash fight back. A protesting singer in Iceland brings down the government; in France a union leader oversees the kidnapping of his bosses; and thousands of families are made homeless in California.

A global financial tsunami

In the second episode of Meltdown, we look at how the financial tsunami swept the world. We hear about a renegade executive who nearly destroyed the global financial system and the US treasury secretary who bailed out his friends.
Henry 'Hank' Paulson, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs and later an economic advisor to the US government; refused to bail out global financial services firm - the Lehman Brothers. Paulson said it was not the role of government to save private businesses.
Lehman's failure had repercussions around the world. Millions of people lost their life savings. Pension plans were decimated.
Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister at the time and a close friend of Paulson's, publicly described Paulson's decision on Lehman "horrendous".
Markets from London and Paris to Shanghai fell. An epidemic of fear caused the world's major banks to stop lending, ending the year in protests and industrial action.

Italy's Redemption Time

A string of weekend news could make the incoming week one of the worst of this long Eurozone Crisis.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing-director, said the outlook had darkened suddenly over the summer.

"There has been a clear crisis of confidence that has seriously aggravated the situation. Measures need to be taken to ensure that this vicious circle is broken," she said.

Markets are already tense after the EU-IMF 'Troika' withdrew abruptly from Athens on Friday, accusing the Greek government of failing to comply with rescue terms. German patience with Athens is already near exhaustion. Prince Hermann Otto zu Solms-Hohensolms-Lich, the Bundestag's deputy president, said Greece cannot bring its debts under control.
"We must consider whether it would not be better for the currency union and for Greece itself to go for debt restructuring and an exit from the euro," he told the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

Nonetheless this crisis is becoming more and more about Italy rather than Greece, if Greece is already a zombie state kept alive by the ECB, Italy is approaching rapidly the same stage.

The Italian treasury must redeem €14.6bn of debts this week and €62bn by the end of September, the most ever in a single month.
"We are experiencing very demanding times," Jean-Claude Trichet, the European Central Bank's president, said over the weekend. The ECB has stabilised Italy's debt over the last four weeks, capping yields on 10-year bond yields near 5pc through purchases on the secondary market.
It is unclear how much longer the ECB can keep doing this after a string of top officials in Germany described the bank's actions as illegal.

The ECB has bought an estimated €35bn of Italian debt under an implicit accord that Rome will deliver on austerity promises.
Premier Silvio Berlusconi has come close to breaching the terms by backpedaling on a wealth tax and pension reform.
Furthermore, Germany's constitutional court is expected to rule on Wednesday that Berlin's participation in EU bail-outs is allowable so long as the Bundestag is given a veto over future payments. However, there is an outside risk that it will go further, concluding that the nexus of rescue policies subvert EU Treaty law and German fiscal sovereignty and must therefore be curbed. This would amount to a "sudden stop" for EMU debt markets. The judges are aware of these risks, yet they ruled two years ago on the Lisbon Treaty that German democracy is "inviolable" and that Berlin is duty bound "to refuse further participation in the European Union" if the constitutional order is threatened.

Italy ready to explode amid government ineptitude

For the good of Italy we can only hope that someone is able to put a muzzle to Berlusconi and force him to shut up!
Yesterday in a move that was supposed to calm markets Berlusconi went to the Parliament illustrating his program to restore growth and stability.
In a country where he controls 90% of the media is easy to brainwash the population with his rethoric on how the situation is fine and there are no risks.
Although with mean foreign investors it is a different story and his stupid comments have not helped at all.
If Berlusconi is hell-bent on destroying the country he is certainly doing a great job with his usual stupid jokes and comments such as:
"Markets are lying on the truth and I would ask them to invest in my firms".
"Since you have money then why not invest them in my company[Mediaset]"
"I don't believe the crisis will spread further and I am not scared if the spread will stay like now"
"Markets are like broken clocks"
He also dismissed an urgent call from Trichet to start immediate reforms to boost growth and dispel market fears.
In the meanwhile after a "Technical Fault" which blocked Milan, Paris, Lisbon and Amsterdam stock exchanges, the day ended with Milan Stock Exchange down more than 5%.
ECB had to intervene and publicly purchase Italian bonds to avoid today's auction from failing and start a cascading disaster although the ECB released a note at later stage where it made clear that is not going to purchase more in the future.
Spain had to cancel an auction on the 18th of August and Wall Street is in free fall with more than 500 points down.
Another minor news which could be exploding in the following days and have a major impact on how to solve this mess is the new IMF Chief Lagarde which just as her predecessor has been involved not in a kinky scandal as Strauss-Kahn but in an abuse of power charge. It appears according to French Judges she facilitated a famous French businessman.
The scariest part is that amid all this turmoil the country at the center of the crisis Italy is practically shutting down with no one left in Rome to take urgent decisions and tomorrow could be carnage on the stock markets.
Italian Parliament went on holidays today regardless, although in order to calm the indignation caused by their long holidays and mass exodus to to Holy Land, they simply managed to shorten their holidays of 1 week so instead of coming back to "work" on the 12th of September will reappear on the 6th of September, of course international markets will no go on holidays and will keep pounding the Italian economy while the government is relaxing on the beach.