Germany calling for Greece's Indentured Service

Germany has made a request that is extraordinary. The Financial Times has a pair of articles on this:

German Government Calls for Greece to Cede Sovereignty to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner"

Please consider Call for EU to Control Greek Budget

The German government wants Greece to cede sovereignty over tax and spending decisions to a eurozone “budget commissioner” to secure a second €130bn bail-out, according to a copy of the proposal obtained by the Financial Times.

In what would amount to an extraordinary extension of European Union control over a member state, the new commissioner would have the power to veto budget decisions taken by the Greek government if they were not in line with targets set by international lenders. The new administrator, appointed by other eurozone finance ministers, would take responsibility for overseeing “all major blocks of expenditure” by the Greek government.

Even before Germany circulated its proposal, the EU and International Monetary Fund had presented a 10-page list of “prior actions” Athens must implement before the new bail-out is agreed. According to a copy of the document, also obtained by the FT, Greece must cut an additional 150,000 government jobs within three years.

Actual Text of Proposal

The Financial Times posted on its website the complete text of the proposal. Here are snips from Assurance of Compliance in the 2nd GRC Programme

1. Absolute priority to debt service
Greece has to legally commit itself to giving absolute priority to future debt service. This commitment has to be legally enshrined by the Greek Parliament. State revenues are to be used first and foremost for debt service, only any remaining revenue may be used to finance primary expenditure. This will reassure public and private creditors that the Hellenic Republic will honour its comittments after PSI and will positively influence market access. De facto elimination of the possibility of a default would make the threat of a non-disbursement of a GRC II tranche much more credible. If a future tranche is not disbursed, Greece can not threaten its lenders with a default, but will instead have to accept further cuts in primary expenditures as the only possible consequence of any non-disbursement.

2. Transfer of national budgetary sovereignty
Budget consolidation has to be put under a strict steering and control system. Given the disappointing compliance so far, Greece has to accept shifting budgetary sovereignty to the European level for a certain period of time. A budget commissioner has to be appointed by the Eurogroup with the task of ensuring budgetary control. He must have the power a) to implement a centralized reporting and surveillance system covering all major blocks of expenditure in the Greek budget, b) to veto decisions not in line with the budgetary targets set by the Troika and c) will be tasked to ensure compliance with the above mentioned rule to prioritize debt service.

If Greece agrees to this proposal is indentured service if not it is broke in a matter of weeks.

Daily Photo: Opera Night

Sovereign Defaults Stats

According to a Wikipedia article on sovereign defaults, here a few examples of major European sovereigns that have defaulted over the years:

• Spain - 15 times! (1557, 1575, 1596, 1607, 1627, 1647, 1809, 1820, 1831, 1834, 1851, 1867, 1872, 1882, 1936-1939)
• England - a modest 3 times (1340, 1472, 1596)
• France - 9 times. (1558, 1624, 1648, 1661, 1701, 1715, 1770, 1788, 1812)
• Greece (1826, 1843, 1860, 1893, 1932)
• Brazil - 10 times inside the last 115 years (1898, 1902, 1914, 1931, 1937, 1961, 1964, 1983, 1986-1987, 1990)
• Russia (1839, 1885, 1918, 1947, 1957, 1991, 1998)
• India (1958, 1969, 1972)
• China (1921, 1932, 1939)

The complete list in the above link includes a list of 39 African sovereign defaults, 26 Asian sovereign defaults, a whopping 91 European sovereign defaults, and for the Americas, a stunning 154 sovereign defaults.

Daily Photo: Holy Grounds

Daily Photo: Celtic Graves

Iran Oil Embargo delayed for six months

Iran is OPEC's second largest oil producer. Bloomberg estimates that Iran pumped 3.58 million barrels of crude a day last month.
Phasing in an embargo is the same as phasing in higher prices smack in the midst of an already guaranteed monster European recession.
Maybe another reason for the delay is that by then they will have accomplished to get rid of the last obstacle (Syria) on the way to Tehran.

Worth reading the timeline and details below since when it will be done all hell will break loose in the Middle East.


Under pretence of looking for other sources of oil, EU Iran Oil Embargo Over Nuclear Work Said Likely to Be Delayed Six Months

A European Union embargo on imports of Iranian (OPCRIRAN) oil will probably be delayed for six months to let countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain find alternative supplies, two EU officials with knowledge of the talks said.

The embargo, which would need to be accepted by the 27- nation bloc’s foreign ministers on Jan. 23, is also likely to include an exemption for Italy, so crude can be sold to pay off debts to Rome-based Eni SpA (ENI), Italy’s largest oil company, according to the officials, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.

A ban on petrochemical products would start sooner, about three months after EU ministers agree to the measure, one official said yesterday. Once a decision is made, member states would be barred from concluding new oil contracts with Iran or renewing those that are due to expire, while existing deals will be terminated within six months, according to a second diplomat today. Long-term contracts constitute the bulk of Europe’s purchases of Iranian oil.

Phasing in the European embargo would satisfy the concern of nations most dependent on Iranian crude, including Italy, Greece and Spain, the first EU official said. Those three nations accounted for 68.5 percent of EU imports from Iran in 2010, according to European Commission data.

As Europe weighs its embargo, President Barack Obama’s administration has sent teams worldwide to consult with countries on managing the supply and demand of oil, according to an administration official who briefed reporters in Washington.

OPEC’s other members would be able to make up for a drop in Iranian oil supply if the EU agrees to an embargo, said Chakib Khelil, the group’s former president. Even so, prices may temporarily rally to as high as $200 a barrel on news of any such blockade, he said today in London.

“It should be possible to replace, at least, the European consumption of Iranian oil,” Khelil said in an interview with Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move.”

Daily Photo: Distillery Lane

Daily Photo: High Street

Argentina crisis escalating

Many of us will remember how 10-years ago, the government of Argentina collapsed and social chaos erupted.
Within a matter of days from the government collapse, the country had burned through several presidents, the currency collapsed, inflation soared, unemployment shot up, crime rates spiked, and the government defaulted on its debt.
Well It seems the government of Argentina is at it again. The economy is rapidly deteriorating, and street-inflation has surpassed 25%.
Naturally, the administration of President Cristina Fernandez insists that inflation is not a problem, despite the Argentine peso losing 25% of its value against the US dollar over the last three-years (and far more against gold).
Meanwhile, Fernandez has imposed capital controls, raided pension funds, nationalized private property, and taken control of the media… all in the attempt to delay the endgame.
A few weeks ago, the government passed a package of new laws, essentially criminalizing public protest under the auspices of combating terrorism. The legislation, snuck in at a midnight session during the holiday period, provides severe punishment for various crimes under a very broad definition of terrorism.
Fernandez herself maintains that the law would -never- be invoked to restrict the legitimate rights of Argentines. This, from a woman who simultaneously passed legislation to seize control of the country’s newspaper industry.
Worth keeping an eye on Argentina since unfortunately we are witnessing the same trend in Italy and other European countries, when it comes to debt and default unfortunately Argentina has a lot to teach the world and Europe on how to mess up a country.

Mafia is Italy's Largest Bank

According to a new report by Italian anti-crime group SOS Impresa, as reported by Reuters, "Organised crime has tightened its grip on the Italian economy during the economic crisis, making the Mafia the country's biggest "bank" and squeezing the life out of thousands of small firms, according to a report on Tuesday."
It is hardly surprising for those accustomed to the sorrow state of Italian affairs to find out that '"With 65 billion euros in liquidity, the Mafia is Italy's number one bank." 



From Reuters:

Organised crime groups like the Sicilian Cosa Nostra, the Naples Camorra or the Calabrian 'Ndrangheta have long had a stranglehold on the Italian economy, generating profits equivalent to about 7 percent of national output.

Extortionate lending had become an increasingly sophisticated and lucrative source of income, alongside drug trafficking, arms smuggling, prostitution, gambling and racketeering, the report said.

"The classic neighbourhood or street loan shark is on the way out, giving way to organised loan-sharking that is well connected with professional circles and operates with the connivance of high-level professionals," the report said.

It estimated about 200,000 businesses were tied to extortionate lenders and tens of thousands of jobs had been lost as a result.

Extortion - new vs old school:

Old style gangsters handing out cash in bars and pool halls had been replaced by apparently respectable bankers, lawyers or notaries, the report said.

"This is extortion with a clean face," it added. "Through their professions, they know the mechanisms of the legal credit market and they often know the financial position of their victims perfectly."

Small businesses, who have struggled to get hold of credit during the economic slowdown, may have been increasingly tempted to turn to the mafia, said the report.

Typical victims of extortionate lending were middle-aged shopkeepers and small businessmen who would struggle to find a new job and who were ready to try anything to avoid bankruptcy, it added.

"They are usually people in traditional retail sectors like food, greengrocers, clothes or shoe shops, florists or furniture shops. These are the categories which, more than any other, are paying the price of the (economic) crisis," it said.

Next up: a surge in prostitution, drugs, xenophobia, child labor, and all those great things that Italy thought it had managed to get away from, and which supposedly were no longer the mark of modern "civilized" society.