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Showing posts with label business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label business. Show all posts
April 14, 2016
Yanis Varoufakis - Capitalism will eat democracy — unless we speak up
Have you wondered why politicians aren't what they used to be, why governments seem unable to solve real problems? Economist Yanis Varoufakis, the former Minister of Finance for Greece, says that it's because you can be in politics today but not be in power — because real power now belongs to those who control the economy. He believes that the mega-rich and corporations are cannibalizing the political sphere, causing financial crisis. In this talk, hear his dream for a world in which capital and labor no longer struggle against each other, "one that is simultaneously libertarian, Marxist and Keynesian."
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September 9, 2015
TED Talks - Jamie Bartlett: How the mysterious dark net is going mainstream
There’s a parallel Internet you may not have run across yet — accessed by a special browser and home to a freewheeling collection of sites for everything from anonymous activism to illicit activities. Jamie Bartlett reports from the dark net.
June 25, 2013
Italy is facing a EU bailout within 6 months
While the Italian press is rife with big headlines on Berlusconi's clusterfuck and his conviction to seven years in prison and a lifetime ban on holding public office; the italian economy is deteriorating faster and faster.
The Italian government is giving few signs of intelligent life and treasury investors are starting to lose patience.
All things considered is not surprising that Mediobanca, Italy’s second biggest bank, said its “index of solvency risk” for Italy was already flashing red as the worldwide bond rout continued into a second week, pushing up borrowing costs.
The Italian government is giving few signs of intelligent life and treasury investors are starting to lose patience.
All things considered is not surprising that Mediobanca, Italy’s second biggest bank, said its “index of solvency risk” for Italy was already flashing red as the worldwide bond rout continued into a second week, pushing up borrowing costs.
The report warned that Italy will “inevitably end up in an EU bail-out
request” over the next six months, unless it can count on low borrowing
costs and a broader recovery.
As Ambrose Evans Pritchard noted:
As Ambrose Evans Pritchard noted:
“Time is running out fast,” said Mediobanca’s top analyst, Antonio Guglielmi, in a confidential client note. “The Italian macro situation has not improved over the last quarter, rather the contrary. Some 160 large corporates in Italy are now in special crisis administration.”Italy’s €2.1 trillion (£1.8 trillion) debt is the world’s third largest after the US and Japan. Any serious stress in its debt markets threatens to reignite the eurozone crisis. This may already have begun after the US Federal Reserve signalled last week that it will begin to drain dollar liquidity from the global system.The ECB has already backed away from earlier plans to steer credit to small businesses in the Club Med bloc. The Italian banking association said it was bitterly disappointed by the latest break down in eurozone talks on a banking union, warning that it leaves Italy’s lenders at the mercy of a confidence crisis.
Andrew Roberts from RBS said the world has become “a dangerous place” as Fed tightening marks an inflexion point in global liquidity.
Borrowing costs of 5pc could prove crippling for Spain and Italy, both suffering from contraction of nominal GDP.
Mediobanca said the trigger for a blow-up in Italy could be a bail-out crisis for Slovenia or an ugly turn of events in Argentina, which has close links to Italian business. “Argentina in particular worries us, as a new default seems likely.”
Mr Guglielmi said Italy’s industrial output has slumped 25pc from its peak in the past decade, while disposable income has dropped 9pc and house sales have dropped to 1985 levels.
The 1992 crisis was defused by a large devaluation, allowing Italy to restore trade competitiveness at a stroke. Mediobanca said: “The euro straitjacket is clearly not providing a similar currency flexibility today. With the lira devaluation Italy managed to inflate debt away, which it cannot do today. It could take more than 10 years to revert to pre-crisis output levels.
May 25, 2013
Where are the millionaires!
Where is the wealth concentrated in the world! According to a new report from WealthInsight, Tokyo is beating out New York and London.
The Economist notes
that the city, which boasts 460,700 individuals with net assets of $1m
or more (excluding their primary residences), is home to over a fifth of
Japan's millionaires. However, when it comes to real money London
tops the list with 4,224 multi-millionaires.
But the real surprise is Frankfurt which has the highest millionaires per capita (with 75 out of every 1000 people having at least a seven figure net worth).
Source: The Economist
Cosmetic surgery boom in crisis-stricken Greece and Italy
While the Greek economy remains under the proverbial knife of the
Troika, it appears the wealthy are unconcerned by the plight of their fellow countrymen.
Der Spiegel reports that not only does Greece have the second highest rate of cosmetic surgery per capita in the world but thanks to a slumping economy, surgeons have cut prices by up to 40% while rich Greeks are never as before rushing to improve their looks.
Via Der Spiegel,
The economic crisis has forced thousands in Greece to rely on volunteers for even basic health care services.
Meanwhile, wealthier Greeks are having more facelifts and breast implants than anywhere in the world.
...
Every year, the International Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery (ISAPS) performs a survey of the number of plastic surgery procedures performed worldwide. When the numbers are compared to a country's population, the results are surprising for Greece. In 2011, 142,394 procedures were performed in the country, with its population of about 11 million. That means that, on average, one in 79 Greeks has had procedures such as liposuction, eyelid corrections and Botox injections performed on them. Worldwide, the Greeks rank only second to the South Koreans in terms of the number of cosmetic procedures performed per 1,000 inhabitants (see graphic). In Germany, with a population of about 81 million, there were 415,448 procedures in 2011, or one in about 200.
2011 was the year of the economic crisis, and yet Greece rose even higher in the international ranking. Looking good still seems to be important to the Greeks.
April 30, 2013
It is Bunga Bunga all over again!
With the election confirmed today by the Senate of the new Italian government Berlusconi has managed to place himself in power once again.
No wonder that Berlusconi is having a very good time these days; with two trials pending and a new government controlled by him, he has managed again to shield himself from going to jail.
The old fox has outwitted his antagonists once again.
Beyond the politics of the moment Italy though is besieged by a very serious crisis.
As the various central banks dump money into the system, the yields on Italian sovereign debt have gone down but this does not change the economic difficulties.
The official debt to GDP ratio is 136% but the actual number is somewhere around 280% which is unsustainable by any measure.
Italy's Real GDP is back to 1990s levels practically erasing any growth accumulated in the last 10 years.
Beyond the politics of the moment Italy though is besieged by a very serious crisis.
As the various central banks dump money into the system, the yields on Italian sovereign debt have gone down but this does not change the economic difficulties.
The official debt to GDP ratio is 136% but the actual number is somewhere around 280% which is unsustainable by any measure.
Italy's Real GDP is back to 1990s levels practically erasing any growth accumulated in the last 10 years.
The Italian banking system is also in dire straits.
Italian banks are seeing a sharp deterioration in the quality of their assets. The rate of acceleration in newly impaired loans is staggering as it appears the current recession, driven by falling internal demand, is more insidious than the export-led crisis in 2009.
And no matter how the Italian banks try to differentiate their bad loan composition, it is an ugly picture.
The Italian House Price Index (IPAB) decreased 4.6% YOY as a result of tightening credit conditions, new property taxes and a difficult macro environment.
Italy's industrial base has one important peculiarity: 95% of companies have under nine employees. In fact the average is four. They are micro companies and as such, their balance sheet is modest and so is their ability to withstand prolonged contraction in demand (external or domestic depending on the line of business).
Italy has a second important peculiarity. It has significant household financial wealth and an aging population, including a high average age of entrepreneurs.
This implies that on the margin more entrepreneurs are likely to decide to scale back operations as expected profitability has diminished due to weak turnover, high red tape and growing fiscal burden.
On the margin, opting for early retirement looks like an increasingly appealing option.
Be it because of severe balance sheet pressures or because of less attractive future returns, the economy is losing productive capacity at a disturbingly high pace.
But despite private wealth and assets the public sector is quite close to going over the cliff.
And no matter how the Italian banks try to differentiate their bad loan composition, it is an ugly picture.
The Italian House Price Index (IPAB) decreased 4.6% YOY as a result of tightening credit conditions, new property taxes and a difficult macro environment.
Italy's industrial base has one important peculiarity: 95% of companies have under nine employees. In fact the average is four. They are micro companies and as such, their balance sheet is modest and so is their ability to withstand prolonged contraction in demand (external or domestic depending on the line of business).
Italy has a second important peculiarity. It has significant household financial wealth and an aging population, including a high average age of entrepreneurs.
This implies that on the margin more entrepreneurs are likely to decide to scale back operations as expected profitability has diminished due to weak turnover, high red tape and growing fiscal burden.
On the margin, opting for early retirement looks like an increasingly appealing option.
Be it because of severe balance sheet pressures or because of less attractive future returns, the economy is losing productive capacity at a disturbingly high pace.
But despite private wealth and assets the public sector is quite close to going over the cliff.
Italy’s difficult position was enumerated in a Bank of Italy report to parliament last week which said the economy was going through its most acute crisis since World War II. Economic output last year was nearly 7% below that of 2007, while disposable incomes had fallen 9.5%. Industrial production had collapsed by 25% over five years, while the building sector shrank 22%. Unemployment had nearly doubled to 11.7% the Italian central bank said.
In the meanwhile Berlusconi's ratings are at an all time high, his PDL party in the latest polls is showing an increased popularity eroding support at PD and MS5.
Simply wondering if the Italian people are completely deluded or simply insane, I propend for the second option!
“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”
April 13, 2013
Household Wealth in Europe
The ECB has finally published the all-country report which gives us an indication of where household wealth is located and where in the future bailouts private wealth will be confiscated. The data is from 2009-2010 so especially in the PIIGS countries it could be overinflated after 3 years of austerity still is a powerful indicator of major unbalances in the Eurozone.
Italian median household wealth was indeed over three times larger than Germany’s. But that wasn’t the problem. The problem was Cyprus.
Cypriot
households (CY), as measured by both their median and average wealth,
were the second richest in the Eurozone. Median household wealth of €266,900 was over five times Germany’s median of €51,400.
Average household wealth reached a phenomenal €670,900, 3.4 times
Germany’s €195,200, and just shy of Luxembourg’s €710,100. Rarefied
levels of wealth achievable only by small countries with huge and murky
banking centres, or lots of oil. Few countries in the world are in that
elite club.
And Germans based on median household wealth, were the poorest in the Eurozone.
It wasn’t that Cypriot households earned a lot of money—they earned the same as German households! They just knew how to hang on to it. At least until their bubble blew up.
By now, wealthier German
households, those who own property and stocks, are significantly better
off than they were in 2010, and they have since pulled up the average.
Median household wealth, however—almost none of them own property or
stocks—has certainly been left behind, again.
In the meanwhile in Cyprus real estate values, after a mind-boggling bubble, have
been plunging for over two years; and billions in bank deposits have
evaporated.
Spanish household wealth has also been caught in a
downward spiral of devastating unemployment and an exploding housing
bubble—Spanish households lead the survey with a homeownership rate of
83%. In 2010, homeowners valued their homes at bubble prices. By now, much of the home equity Spaniards were
clinging to has dissipated—with dramatic impact on
household wealth.
Central bank sources
told the FAZ that the Bundesbank and the ECB, to avoid stirring up a
storm at an inconvenient time, kept this explosive wealth data secret
until after the Cyprus bailout had been decided. But the data also
explains the political motivation for the haircuts of account holders in
Cypriot banks.
April 10, 2013
How to move offshore your cash in six steps
No one know for sure how much of the planet's private wealth is parked in tax havens. One estimate is that there's $32 trillion deposited offshore; a more conservative calculation puts it a minimum of $8 trillion.
It is easy to understand why 2.5 million files covering 120,000 offshore entities was 'accidentally' leaked to the media.
Governments realize that they are running out of options fast and putting pressure on off-shore accounts is the second front of a coordinated effort to start converting private wealth to a public one.
It is easy to understand why 2.5 million files covering 120,000 offshore entities was 'accidentally' leaked to the media.
Governments realize that they are running out of options fast and putting pressure on off-shore accounts is the second front of a coordinated effort to start converting private wealth to a public one.
ICIJ issued the following simple six-step process guide to off-shore stashing; from 'Choosing a haven' to creating a 'secret identity' and from opening the 'right' bank account to how to 'move' the money; this picturesque guide may be indispensable to many Europeans now that the EU is adamant on who will pay the next banking crisis.
For a full interactive tour visit: http://www.icij.org/offshore/interactive-stash-your-cash
April 9, 2013
Europe Stagflation risks
Hard times ahead for Cyprus and the PIGS.
Bloomberg has ranked countries based on their risk of stagflation.
Stagflation, a combination of stagnation and inflation, is a term used in economics to describe a situation where inflation is high while the economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains steadily high.
It raises a dilemma for economic policy since actions designed to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment, and vice versa.
The lower the score, the greater the risk of stagflation.
Cyprus was found to be most at risk of stagflation with a Stagflation Score of -4.733, followed by Portugal (-2.671), Italy (-2.133), Spain(-1.745) and Greece (-1.366). Switzerland was ranked least at risk with a score of (7.560), followed by China (2.612) and Japan (2.446).
Bloomberg has ranked countries based on their risk of stagflation.
Stagflation, a combination of stagnation and inflation, is a term used in economics to describe a situation where inflation is high while the economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains steadily high.
It raises a dilemma for economic policy since actions designed to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment, and vice versa.
The lower the score, the greater the risk of stagflation.
Cyprus was found to be most at risk of stagflation with a Stagflation Score of -4.733, followed by Portugal (-2.671), Italy (-2.133), Spain(-1.745) and Greece (-1.366). Switzerland was ranked least at risk with a score of (7.560), followed by China (2.612) and Japan (2.446).
Source: Bloomberg Brief
April 6, 2013
Eu Wide Bank Confiscation Approaching
What happened in Cyprus is unfortunately going to be replicated all over Europe, the reason is simple at the end there is not enough money to bailout Spain and Italy, the system used so far in Portugal, Greece and Ireland is not sustainable, let us even suppose for one moment that Germany is willing to help Italy and Spain, it will not work, there is not enough money to sustain those rapidly decomposing economies and even if Germany would mortgage its future it would only kick the can down the road for few more years.
The crisis is systemic and the jump-ship set of mind is already in place all over Europe.Italy and Spain are doomed, France is on the brink.
Cyprus has been correctly addressed as a guinea pig for future bail (out-in) but at the end all minds go to Italy with its large savings base and Spain with his colossal bank crisis.
This week Italy's largest bank CEO contemplated such a move and alarm bells should start ringing all over Europe:
From Bloomberg: Unicredit says global rule needed
Cutting large deposits in failing banks, along with other liabilities such as bonds, to offset losses is acceptable as long as small savers’ funds remain protected, Ghizzoni told reporters in Vienna late yesterday. The European Union has to introduce identical rules in all of its member states and ideally those rules would be coordinated globally, he said.
Unicredit knows the Cyprus effect is coming to Italy and Spain and it is asking a global coordination to ring fence the EU from massive capital flows.
What is scaring is that we have moved from a world where property and savings were guaranteed to a world where property is no longer safe and where starting from bankers to politicians a framework is being created to justify or legalize such confiscations as necessary.
From Reuters: EU to push for losses on big savers at failed banks.
The European Parliament will demand that big savers take losses if their banks run into trouble, a senior lawmaker told Reuters, adding momentum to a policy unveiled as part of a Cypriot bailout.Looking ahead, the implication is that no one should place more than €100,000 in any bank (but then since every rule can be twisted according to the moment's necessity who know if 100.000 will still be the threshold in 1 year time).
Now the likelihood is rising that tough treatment of big depositors will be written into a new EU law, making losses for large savers a permanent feature of future banking crises.
"You need to be able to do the bail-in as well with deposits," said Gunnar Hokmark, an influential member of the European Parliament, who is leading negotiations with EU countries to finalize a law for winding up problem banks.
"Deposits below 100,000 euros are protected ... deposits above 100,000 euros are not protected and shall be treated as part of the capital that can be bailed in," Hokmark told Reuters, adding that he was confident a majority of his peers in the parliament backed this line.
The law, which will also introduce means to impose losses on bondholders, is due to take effect at the start of 2015. Germany wants provisions for bailing in bondholders and others in the same year, though that may be delayed.
Hokmark urged savers to check their banks' health before taking the risk of depositing money.
"If you put your money in Royal Bank of Scotland ... or Deutsche Bank, depending on how that bank is working you are taking a risk," he said. "You need to be aware that you are taking a risk.
So no one will invest in Europe especially in questionable Southern European banks.
Instead, expect capital flights to resume in different, more creative forms.
Pressure is going to rise on offshore banks as well to undermine their attractiveness and willingness to accept deposits from EU citizens, proof enough is this week leaks on offshore accounts.
A major campaign has started to coral money inside the EU in anticipation of the Great Confiscation and Great Depression approaching.
My only tip if you have money inside the EU is time to move out before the trap is in place.
March 25, 2013
Euro Template to Confiscate European Bank Accounts
As reported in my previous post, signals are there already that Cyprus will not be an isolated case and that similar confiscations will be applied to other nations in the Eurozone.
Of course having the luxury of the Eurogroup leader to agree with you and stating it publicly the day after is something unexpected.
Mr. Dijsselbloem, Leader of the Eurogroup and Dutch Finance Minister stated that Cyprus will become the new template for resolving Eurozone banking problems.
Markets did not appreciate the candour of Mr. Dijsselbloem (apparently it is pronounced Diesel-BOOM), his explosive remark did not take long to bring down the markets and put an end to the insane optimism following the Cyprus bailout deal.
Talking with Reuters, on the resolution model just put in place in Cyprus:
Translation:
It is now officially dangerous to have a big bank account in Europe. In other words being an Uninsured Depositor.
After the not so amiable reaction of the financial markets Mr. Dijsselbloem (Diesel BOOM) has clarified his remarks on the Eurogroup's website:
Of course having the luxury of the Eurogroup leader to agree with you and stating it publicly the day after is something unexpected.
Mr. Dijsselbloem, Leader of the Eurogroup and Dutch Finance Minister stated that Cyprus will become the new template for resolving Eurozone banking problems.
Markets did not appreciate the candour of Mr. Dijsselbloem (apparently it is pronounced Diesel-BOOM), his explosive remark did not take long to bring down the markets and put an end to the insane optimism following the Cyprus bailout deal.
Talking with Reuters, on the resolution model just put in place in Cyprus:
A rescue programme agreed for Cyprus on Monday represents a new template for resolving euro zone banking problems and other countries may have to restructure their banking sectors, the head of the region's finance ministers said.
"What we've done last night is what I call pushing back the risks," Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers, told Reuters and the Financial Times hours after the Cyprus deal was struck.
"If there is a risk in a bank, our first question should be 'Okay, what are you in the bank going to do about that? What can you do to recapitalise yourself?'. If the bank can't do it, then we'll talk to the shareholders and the bondholders, we'll ask them to contribute in recapitalising the bank, and if necessary the uninsured deposit holders," he said.
After 12 hours of talks with the EU and IMF, Cyprus agreed to shut down its second largest bank, with insured deposits - those below 100,000 euros - moved to the Bank of Cyprus, the country's largest lender. Uninsured deposits, those accounts with more than 100,000 euros, face losses of 4.2 billion euros.
Uninsured depositors in the Bank of Cyprus will have their accounts frozen while the bank is restructured and recapitalised. Any capital that is needed to strengthen the bank will be drawn from accounts above 100,000 euros.
The agreement is what is known as a "bail-in", with shareholders and bondholders in banks forced to bear the costs of the restructuring first, followed by uninsured depositors. Under EU rules, deposits up to 100,000 euros are guaranteed.
Translation:
It is now officially dangerous to have a big bank account in Europe. In other words being an Uninsured Depositor.
After the not so amiable reaction of the financial markets Mr. Dijsselbloem (Diesel BOOM) has clarified his remarks on the Eurogroup's website:
I'm sure now all the Ininsured Depositors feel very reassured, Thank you sir!Statement by the Eurogroup President on Cyprus
25/03/2013 - Statement
Cyprus is a specific case with exceptional challenges which required the bail-in measures we have agreed upon yesterday.
Macro-economic adjustment programmes are tailor-made to the situation of the country concerned and no models or templates are used.
March 23, 2013
After Cyprus levy; are Italy and Spain next?
Cyprus crisis is reaching his climax this weekend but regardless of how it will develop served well in distracting the media and the EU population from the bigger fishes frying in the EU pan, Italy and Spain.
So despite dimmed lights on the Italian political disaster and the Spanish banking Armageddon it is worth highlighting the following news:
Subsequently the Spanish Minister of Finance & Public Administration announced a tax or bank levy (probably 0.2%) to be imposed on bank deposits, without details on which deposits will be affected or timing.
and on Italy:
So despite dimmed lights on the Italian political disaster and the Spanish banking Armageddon it is worth highlighting the following news:
Via El Pais (Via Google Translate),
The Minister of Finance and Public Administration, Cristobal Montoro, has advanced on Tuesday that the government will impose a type "moderate" to bank deposits to compensate communities that saw their tax autonomy canceled after the Executive created a state tax 0% rate. This tax on bank deposits, which has nothing to do with Cyprus, does not affect savers but requires credit institutions to pay for that capture deposits.
"The autonomous communities receive timely and therefore financially compensation shall implement a moderate rate in the state tax on bank deposits," said the minister, adding that this kind "will not be much higher than 0%" .
The Minister of Finance has clarified that such "moderate" will have no tax collection effort, "but that these regions serve to offset the revenue loss to see." So, he assured that the amount will correspond to the amount "exact has been undermined by the cancellation of regional taxes".
Subsequently the Spanish Minister of Finance & Public Administration announced a tax or bank levy (probably 0.2%) to be imposed on bank deposits, without details on which deposits will be affected or timing.
and on Italy:
In an article on Handelsblatt the chief economist of Commerzbank says: Italy should bring a unique wealth tax.
It is a myth to talk of crisis-strapped states. Even the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and the chief economist of Commerzbank, Joerg Kraemer says the numbers suggest a different view.
Kramer relies on surveys of the European Central Bank. Net financial assets of the Italians are 173 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). This is significantly more than the net financial assets of the Germans, which corresponds to 124 percent of GDP, said Kramer for Handelsblatt Online.
"So it would make sense, in Italy for a one-time property tax levy," suggested the Bank economist. "A tax rate of 15 percent on financial assets would probably be enough to push the Italian government debt to below the critical level of 100 percent of gross domestic product."
March 7, 2013
Italian Debt Highest since Mussolini
Italian debt is up in 2012 to 127 percent of gross domestic product from 120.8 percent a year earlier. As Bloomberg notes, that's the most since 1924, when Mussolini won 64 percent of the popular vote in elections. It seems that austerity is not working at all or has not been addressing the real culprit since spending has risen almost 3% in the last three years and taxes have not kept pace.
The reality is that austerity has been hitting only the soft target of an impoverished salaried middle class which is an easy target but has been largely ignoring the cronies, lobbies and potentates which are still corruptly and voraciously living of rent while stalling any real reform of the country.
The reality is that austerity has been hitting only the soft target of an impoverished salaried middle class which is an easy target but has been largely ignoring the cronies, lobbies and potentates which are still corruptly and voraciously living of rent while stalling any real reform of the country.
February 21, 2013
Italian Elections increase doubts over long term reforms
Italians head to the polls on February 24-25 and never before the political scenario has been so chaotic and appalling.
We are witnessing new political movements like the 5 Stars movement climbing up to third place in a matter of months and never before we have seen Germany actively entering the Italian political debate to try and keep Berlusconi at bay.
We are witnessing new political movements like the 5 Stars movement climbing up to third place in a matter of months and never before we have seen Germany actively entering the Italian political debate to try and keep Berlusconi at bay.
All this is adding up to financial uncertainty on the future of Italy and at large of the Eurozone.
Pier Luigi Bersani, who heads the centre-left PD was considered the assumed new prime minister just a few short weeks ago, at least in the Chamber (the lower house of parliament).
It's all up in the air now as Silvio Berlusconi's PDL has staged a massive rally in the polls.
Berlusconi has been on a rampage lately blaming Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel for the unemployment problems in Italy, promising to refund the hated IMU (property tax) and more exotically declaring that tax evasion is justified.
Beppe Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) which has been largely ignored in the Italian press has been wildly popular at rallies. Grillo has a chance to come in second place.
Mario Monti, who heads the centrist Con Monti per l’Italia (With Monti for Italy) coalition, is running a very distant 4th.
Pier Luigi Bersani, who heads the centre-left PD was considered the assumed new prime minister just a few short weeks ago, at least in the Chamber (the lower house of parliament).
It's all up in the air now as Silvio Berlusconi's PDL has staged a massive rally in the polls.
Berlusconi has been on a rampage lately blaming Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel for the unemployment problems in Italy, promising to refund the hated IMU (property tax) and more exotically declaring that tax evasion is justified.
Beppe Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) which has been largely ignored in the Italian press has been wildly popular at rallies. Grillo has a chance to come in second place.
Mario Monti, who heads the centrist Con Monti per l’Italia (With Monti for Italy) coalition, is running a very distant 4th.
Poll Blackouts
Officially, pollsters cannot post poll results in a blackout period before the election. That blackout period started February 9. Below Reuters' 8th of February polls.

Those results are misleading because they do not include undecided voters, and the undecided vote is a very large 20-25 percent!
With such little difference between Berlusconi and Bersani, and with huge rallies for Beppe Grillo and Berlusconi, any outcome is possible.
Germany Warns Against Berlusconi
Of potentially more importance, Berlin Warns Italians against Berlusconi
Here are a few examples from the story.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reportedly said (but later denied) "Silvio Berlusconi may be an effective campaign strategist, but my advice to the Italians is not to make the same mistake again by re-electing him."
Polenz, a senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, said: "Italy needs political leaders who stand for the future. Berlusconi is certainly not one of them."
One Italian bank even went so far this week as to issue a report arguing that a Berlusconi election would almost certainly force the country to apply for emergency bailout aid from the EU. Mediobanca, Italy's largest investment bank, wrote that "a last-minute Berlusconi victory would scare the market sufficiently to put pressure on the spread."
"Silvio the Savior"
Spiegel reports Berlusconi's Faithful: 'Only Silvio Can Save Italy'
Adoration of Berlusconi in Italy remains widespread. In the parallel universe occupied by his followers, there is no room for doubt about Berlusconi and lines are clearly drawn. Silvio is good and the others are bad.
These fans gather at his speeches, like the Saturday rally in Palermo, where thousands crowded into the venerable Teatro Politeama. There were women in long fur coats and fine gentlemen in three-piece suits. Dock workers like Ferrante squeezed with them through the entrance, everyone pushing and shoving each other like adolescents at a rock concert. The hundreds who didn't make it in must stand outside.
Fully a quarter of Italians are prepared to vote for Berlusconi again. It is an astounding degree of homage paid to man who faces allegations of abuse of power and bribery; who faces the scandal surrounding the underage escort Karima el-Marough, alias Ruby Rubacuori; who has been blasted for blatantly misogynistic comments; and who broke many promises as prime minister. Instead, the opposition, left-leaning judges and even the Germans are blamed for all that is not right with Italy.
At best, Bersani will win the Chamber and lose the Senate. That would likely result in a hung parliament.
Anti-German sentiment in Italy is high already. The entrance of German politicians into the battle may fuel that sentiment in a major way.
It is conceivable "Silvio the Savior" pulls off a stunning upset win in both the Chamber and Senate, but a Senate victory would still require a coalition (no party will come close to a majority).
It may be difficult if not impossible for any party to form a Senate coalition if Monti's party does poorly as expected.
Regardless Berlusconi there seems to be no good outcome for Italy.
Anti-German sentiment in Italy is high already. The entrance of German politicians into the battle may fuel that sentiment in a major way.
It is conceivable "Silvio the Savior" pulls off a stunning upset win in both the Chamber and Senate, but a Senate victory would still require a coalition (no party will come close to a majority).
It may be difficult if not impossible for any party to form a Senate coalition if Monti's party does poorly as expected.
Regardless Berlusconi there seems to be no good outcome for Italy.
January 13, 2013
2013 Economic Freedom Report highlight Italy's troubles
The appalling state of Italian economy is no longer getting international headlines but the slide of the county toward third world standards is continuing unabated.
The new 2013 report on Economic Freedom has been published; a full report can be found here and again Italy's ranking is a disaster for a major economy.
On the overall score Italy is ranking 83rd which by itself is an appalling result for a major developed economy, positioning itself below Uganda and Sri Lanka.
But when it comes to Freedom from Corruption Italy manage to score an appalling score of 39 together with Ghana and Macedonia.
Below some extracts from the report delving into an analysis of Italy's shortcomings:
As per the rule of law and corruption Italy is faring among the worst countries, below the motivation for such low ranking:
OVERALL SCORE BY COUNTRY:
The new 2013 report on Economic Freedom has been published; a full report can be found here and again Italy's ranking is a disaster for a major economy.
On the overall score Italy is ranking 83rd which by itself is an appalling result for a major developed economy, positioning itself below Uganda and Sri Lanka.
But when it comes to Freedom from Corruption Italy manage to score an appalling score of 39 together with Ghana and Macedonia.
Below some extracts from the report delving into an analysis of Italy's shortcomings:
The foundations of economic freedom remain weak in the absence of an efficient judicial framework to provide effective and timely resolution of cases. Corruption, often involving government officials, is a growing concern, severely undercutting confidence and trust in the government.
As per the rule of law and corruption Italy is faring among the worst countries, below the motivation for such low ranking:
And when it comes to attracting investments:
Property rights and contracts are secure, but court procedures are extremely slow. Many companies choose to settle out of court. The legal system is vulnerable to political interference. Widespread corruption has bred a culture of lawlessness and tax evasion and has weakened respect for the judiciary. Enforcement of intellectual property rights is below developed-country standards.
Regulatory complexity causes delays and increases the cost of entrepreneurial activity. Completing licensing requirements takes over 200 days and costs more than the level of average annual income. Serious labor market rigidities constrain job growth, and the informal labor market accounts for a large proportion of employment. Stagflation engendered by the eurozone crisis presents monumental monetary policy challenges.
OVERALL SCORE BY COUNTRY:
| Hong Kong | 89.3 |
| Singapore | 88 |
| Australia | 82.6 |
| New Zealand | 81.4 |
| Switzerland | 81 |
| Canada | 79.4 |
| Chile | 79 |
| Mauritius | 76.9 |
| Denmark | 76.1 |
| United States | 76 |
| Ireland | 75.7 |
| Bahrain | 75.5 |
| Estonia | 75.3 |
| United Kingdom | 74.8 |
| Luxembourg | 74.2 |
| Finland | 74 |
| The Netherlands | 73.5 |
| Sweden | 72.9 |
| Germany | 72.8 |
| Taiwan | 72.7 |
| Georgia | 72.2 |
| Iceland | 72.1 |
| Lithuania | 72.1 |
| Austria | 71.8 |
| Japan | 71.8 |
| Macau | 71.7 |
| Qatar | 71.3 |
| United Arab Emirates | 71.1 |
| Czech Republic | 70.9 |
| Botswana | 70.6 |
| Norway | 70.5 |
| Jordan | 70.4 |
| Saint Lucia | 70.4 |
| South Korea | 70.3 |
| The Bahamas | 70.1 |
| Uruguay | 69.7 |
| Colombia | 69.6 |
| Armenia | 69.4 |
| Barbados | 69.3 |
| Belgium | 69.2 |
| Cyprus | 69 |
| Slovakia | 68.7 |
| Macedonia | 68.2 |
| Peru | 68.2 |
| Oman | 68.1 |
| Spain | 68 |
| Malta | 67.5 |
| Hungary | 67.3 |
| Costa Rica | 67 |
| Mexico | 67 |
| Israel | 66.9 |
| Jamaica | 66.8 |
| El Salvador | 66.7 |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 66.7 |
| Latvia | 66.5 |
| Malaysia | 66.1 |
| Poland | 66 |
| Albania | 65.2 |
| Romania | 65.1 |
| Bulgaria | 65 |
| France | 64.1 |
| Rwanda | 64.1 |
| Thailand | 64.1 |
| Dominica | 63.9 |
| Cape Verde | 63.7 |
| Kuwait | 63.1 |
| Portugal | 63.1 |
| Kazakhstan | 63 |
| Turkey | 62.9 |
| Montenegro | 62.6 |
| Panama | 62.5 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 62.3 |
| Madagascar | 62 |
| South Africa | 61.8 |
| Mongolia | 61.7 |
| Slovenia | 61.7 |
| Croatia | 61.3 |
| Ghana | 61.3 |
| Paraguay | 61.1 |
| Uganda | 61.1 |
| Sri Lanka | 60.7 |
| Italy | 60.6 |
| Saudi Arabia | 60.6 |
| Namibia | 60.3 |
| Guatemala | 60 |
| Burkina Faso | 59.9 |
| Azerbaijan | 59.7 |
| Dominican Republic | 59.7 |
| Kyrgyz Republic | 59.6 |
| Morocco | 59.6 |
| Lebanon | 59.5 |
| The Gambia | 58.8 |
| Zambia | 58.7 |
| Serbia | 58.6 |
| Cambodia | 58.5 |
| Honduras | 58.4 |
| The Philippines | 58.2 |
| Tanzania | 57.9 |
| Gabon | 57.8 |
| Brazil | 57.7 |
| Benin | 57.6 |
| Belize | 57.3 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 57.3 |
| Fiji | 57.2 |
| Swaziland | 57.2 |
| Samoa | 57.1 |
| Tunisia | 57 |
| Indonesia | 56.9 |
| Nicaragua | 56.6 |
| Vanuatu | 56.6 |
| Mali | 56.4 |
| Tonga | 56 |
| Kenya | 55.9 |
| Yemen | 55.9 |
| Moldova | 55.5 |
| Senegal | 55.5 |
| Greece | 55.4 |
| Malawi | 55.3 |
| India | 55.2 |
| Nigeria | 55.1 |
| Pakistan | 55.1 |
| Bhutan | 55 |
| Mozambique | 55 |
| Seychelles | 54.9 |
| Egypt | 54.8 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 54.1 |
| Djibouti | 53.9 |
| Niger | 53.9 |
| Guyana | 53.8 |
| Papua New Guinea | 53.6 |
| Tajikistan | 53.4 |
| Bangladesh | 52.6 |
| Cameroon | 52.3 |
| Mauritania | 52.3 |
| Suriname | 52 |
| China | 51.9 |
| Guinea | 51.2 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 51.1 |
| Russia | 51.1 |
| Vietnam | 51 |
| Central African Republic | 50.4 |
| Nepal | 50.4 |
| Laos | 50.1 |
| Micronesia | 50.1 |
| Algeria | 49.6 |
| Ethiopia | 49.4 |
| Liberia | 49.3 |
| Burundi | 49 |
| Maldives | 49 |
| Togo | 48.8 |
| Sierra Leone | 48.3 |
| Haiti | 48.1 |
| Belarus | 48 |
| São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 48 |
| Bolivia | 47.9 |
| Lesotho | 47.9 |
| Comoros | 47.5 |
| Angola | 47.3 |
| Ecuador | 46.9 |
| Argentina | 46.7 |
| Ukraine | 46.3 |
| Uzbekistan | 46 |
| Kiribati | 45.9 |
| Chad | 45.2 |
| Solomon Islands | 45 |
| Timor-Leste | 43.7 |
| Republic of Congo | 43.5 |
| Iran | 43.2 |
| Turkmenistan | 42.6 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 42.3 |
| Democratic Republic of Congo | 39.6 |
| Burma | 39.2 |
| Eritrea | 36.3 |
| Venezuela | 36.1 |
| Zimbabwe | 28.6 |
| Cuba | 28.5 |
| North Korea | 1.5 |
January 10, 2013
Global Manufacturing Ranking
The leaders of global manufacturing are changing rapidly, China, India and Russia are rising and Germany, Japan, UK, and Canada are sliding. The following chart simplifies the evolution of global manufacturing economies over the last four decades.
December 30, 2012
Ernesto Sirolli: Want to help someone? Shut up and listen!
In
this funny and impassioned talk, he proposes that the first step is to
listen to the people you're trying to help, and tap into their own
entrepreneurial spirit. His advice on what works will help any
entrepreneur.
December 25, 2012
Spanish Crisis Video
For those wondering what is happening in Spain worth checking this good documentary on the Spanish Crisis and its construction bubble crash:
November 21, 2012
Key Global Events
Interesting chart with all major incoming events for the next 5 years.
Election Events...

and the next 12 months events:

Source: SocGen
Election Events...
and the next 12 months events:
Source: SocGen
The tallest building in the world in 90 days
China is trying not only to establish a new world record when it comes to empty buildings but now even with construction time, the tallest building in the world in 90 days.
Just wondering how long it will take to fill it up after construction.
Gizmodo reports China Will Build the Tallest Building In the World in Just 90 Days.
Just wondering how long it will take to fill it up after construction.
Gizmodo reports China Will Build the Tallest Building In the World in Just 90 Days.
According to its engineers, this will be the tallest skyscraper in the world by the end of March of 2013. Its name is Sky City, and its 2,749 feet (838 meters) distributed in 220 floors will grow in just 90 days in Changsha city, by the Xiangjiang river. Ninety days!Artist's Rendition
It's not a joke. According to the construction company, the skyscraper will be built in just 90 days at the unbelievable rate of five floors per day.
Pre-Fab Magic
They will be able to achieve this impossibly fast construction rate by using a prefabricated modular technology developed by Broad Sustainable Building, a company that has built 20 tall structures in China so far, including the a 30-story hotel [constructed in 360 hours - see link for time-lapse video].
Record numbers
Unlike the Burj Khalifa, the tower will be mostly habitable. Its final height will be 2,749 feet high (838 meters). Compared that to the Burj's 2,719 feet (829 meters), which include the spire at the top resulting in a total of 163 floors.
Sky City will use an astonishing 220,000 tons of steel. The structure will be able to house 31,400 people of both "high and low income communities". The company says that the residential area will use 83-percent of the building, while the rest will be offices, schools, hospitals, shops and restaurants. People will move up and down using 104 high speed elevators.
The record figures don't stop there: in addition to the 90-day construction time—as opposed to the 210 days initially reported by the Chinese media—the company claims it will cost $1,500 per square meter as opposed to the Burj's $15,000 per square meter, all thanks to the prefab technology.
They also claim it will be able to sustain earthquakes of a 9.0 magnitude and be resistant to fire for "up to three hours," as well as be extremely energy efficient thanks to thermal insulation, four-panned windows and different air conditioning techniques that were already used in their previous constructions.
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