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Showing posts with label Government. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Government. Show all posts

April 14, 2016

Yanis Varoufakis - Capitalism will eat democracy — unless we speak up

Have you wondered why politicians aren't what they used to be, why governments seem unable to solve real problems? Economist Yanis Varoufakis, the former Minister of Finance for Greece, says that it's because you can be in politics today but not be in power — because real power now belongs to those who control the economy. He believes that the mega-rich and corporations are cannibalizing the political sphere, causing financial crisis. In this talk, hear his dream for a world in which capital and labor no longer struggle against each other, "one that is simultaneously libertarian, Marxist and Keynesian."

April 30, 2013

It is Bunga Bunga all over again!

With the election confirmed today by the Senate of the new Italian government Berlusconi has managed to place himself in power once again. 
No wonder that Berlusconi is having a very good time these days; with two trials pending and a new government controlled by him, he has managed again to shield himself from going to jail. 
The old fox has outwitted his antagonists once again.

Beyond the politics of the moment Italy though is besieged by a very serious crisis.

As the various central banks dump money into the system, the yields on Italian sovereign debt have gone down but this does not change the economic difficulties.

The official debt to GDP ratio is 136% but the actual number is somewhere around 280% which is unsustainable by any measure.

Italy's Real GDP is back to 1990s levels practically erasing any growth accumulated in the last 10 years.


The Italian banking system is also in dire straits.
Italian banks are seeing a sharp deterioration in the quality of their assets. The rate of acceleration in newly impaired loans is staggering as it appears the current recession, driven by falling internal demand, is more insidious than the export-led crisis in 2009.

And no matter how the Italian banks try to differentiate their bad loan composition, it is an ugly picture.

The Italian House Price Index (IPAB) decreased 4.6% YOY as a result of tightening credit conditions, new property taxes and a difficult macro environment.

Italy's industrial base has one important peculiarity: 95% of companies have under nine employees. In fact the average is four. They are micro companies and as such, their balance sheet is modest and so is their ability to withstand prolonged contraction in demand (external or domestic depending on the line of business).

Italy has a second important peculiarity. It has significant household financial wealth and an aging population, including a high average age of entrepreneurs.
This implies that on the margin more entrepreneurs are likely to decide to scale back operations as expected profitability has diminished due to weak turnover, high red tape and growing fiscal burden.

On the margin, opting for early retirement looks like an increasingly appealing option.
Be it because of severe balance sheet pressures or because of less attractive future returns, the economy is losing productive capacity at a disturbingly high pace.

But despite private wealth and assets the public sector is quite close to going over the cliff.

Italy’s difficult position was enumerated in a Bank of Italy report to parliament last week which said the economy was going through its most acute crisis since World War II. Economic output last year was nearly 7% below that of 2007, while disposable incomes had fallen 9.5%. Industrial production had collapsed by 25% over five years, while the building sector shrank 22%. Unemployment had nearly doubled to 11.7% the Italian central bank said.

In the meanwhile Berlusconi's ratings are at an all time high, his PDL party in the latest polls is showing an increased popularity eroding support at PD and MS5.

Simply wondering if the Italian people are completely deluded or simply insane, I propend for the second option!


“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”

 

February 21, 2013

Italian Elections increase doubts over long term reforms

Italians head to the polls on February 24-25 and never before the political scenario has been so chaotic and appalling.

We are witnessing new political movements like the 5 Stars movement climbing up to third place in a matter of months and never before we have seen Germany actively entering the Italian political debate to try and keep Berlusconi at bay.
 
All this is adding up to financial uncertainty on the future of Italy and at large of the Eurozone.

Pier Luigi Bersani, who heads the centre-left PD was considered the assumed new prime minister just a few short weeks ago, at least in the Chamber (the lower house of parliament).

It's all up in the air now as Silvio Berlusconi's PDL has staged a massive rally in the polls.

Berlusconi has been on a rampage lately blaming Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel for the unemployment problems in Italy, promising to refund the hated IMU (property tax) and more exotically declaring that tax evasion is justified.

Beppe Grillo's Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) which has been largely ignored in the Italian press has been wildly popular at rallies. Grillo has a chance to come in second place.

Mario Monti, who heads the centrist Con Monti per l’Italia (With Monti for Italy) coalition, is running a very distant 4th.

Poll Blackouts

Officially, pollsters cannot post poll results in a blackout period before the election. That blackout period started February 9. Below Reuters' 8th of February polls.



Those results are misleading because they do not include undecided voters, and the undecided vote is a very large 20-25 percent!

With such little difference between Berlusconi and Bersani, and with huge rallies for Beppe Grillo and Berlusconi, any outcome is possible.

Germany Warns Against Berlusconi

Of potentially more importance, Berlin Warns Italians against Berlusconi

Here are a few examples from the story.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reportedly said (but later denied) "Silvio Berlusconi may be an effective campaign strategist, but my advice to the Italians is not to make the same mistake again by re-electing him."

Polenz, a senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, said: "Italy needs political leaders who stand for the future. Berlusconi is certainly not one of them."

One Italian bank even went so far this week as to issue a report arguing that a Berlusconi election would almost certainly force the country to apply for emergency bailout aid from the EU. Mediobanca, Italy's largest investment bank, wrote that "a last-minute Berlusconi victory would scare the market sufficiently to put pressure on the spread."

"Silvio the Savior"

Spiegel reports Berlusconi's Faithful: 'Only Silvio Can Save Italy'
Adoration of Berlusconi in Italy remains widespread. In the parallel universe occupied by his followers, there is no room for doubt about Berlusconi and lines are clearly drawn. Silvio is good and the others are bad.

These fans gather at his speeches, like the Saturday rally in Palermo, where thousands crowded into the venerable Teatro Politeama. There were women in long fur coats and fine gentlemen in three-piece suits. Dock workers like Ferrante squeezed with them through the entrance, everyone pushing and shoving each other like adolescents at a rock concert. The hundreds who didn't make it in must stand outside.

Fully a quarter of Italians are prepared to vote for Berlusconi again. It is an astounding degree of homage paid to man who faces allegations of abuse of power and bribery; who faces the scandal surrounding the underage escort Karima el-Marough, alias Ruby Rubacuori; who has been blasted for blatantly misogynistic comments; and who broke many promises as prime minister. Instead, the opposition, left-leaning judges and even the Germans are blamed for all that is not right with Italy.
At best, Bersani will win the Chamber and lose the Senate. That would likely result in a hung parliament.

Anti-German sentiment in Italy is high already. The entrance of German politicians into the battle may fuel that sentiment in a major way.

It is conceivable "Silvio the Savior" pulls off a stunning upset win in both the Chamber and Senate, but a Senate victory would still require a coalition (no party will come close to a majority).

It may be difficult if not impossible for any party to form a Senate coalition if Monti's party does poorly as expected.

Regardless Berlusconi there seems to be no good outcome for Italy.

January 13, 2013

2013 Economic Freedom Report highlight Italy's troubles

The appalling state of Italian economy is no longer getting international headlines but the slide of the county toward third world standards is continuing unabated.
The new 2013 report on Economic Freedom has been published; a full report can be found here and again Italy's ranking is a disaster for a major economy.

On the overall score Italy is ranking 83rd which by itself is an appalling result for a major developed economy, positioning itself below Uganda and Sri Lanka.

But when it comes to Freedom from Corruption Italy manage to score an appalling score of 39 together with Ghana and Macedonia.


Below some extracts from the report delving into an analysis of Italy's shortcomings:

The foundations of economic freedom remain weak in the absence of an efficient judicial framework to provide effective and timely resolution of cases. Corruption, often involving government officials, is a growing concern, severely undercutting confidence and trust in the government.

As per the rule of law and corruption Italy is faring among the worst countries, below the motivation for such low ranking:

Property rights and contracts are secure, but court procedures are extremely slow. Many companies choose to settle out of court. The legal system is vulnerable to political interference. Widespread corruption has bred a culture of lawlessness and tax evasion and has weakened respect for the judiciary. Enforcement of intellectual property rights is below developed-country standards.
And when it comes to attracting investments:

Regulatory complexity causes delays and increases the cost of entrepreneurial activity. Completing licensing requirements takes over 200 days and costs more than the level of average annual income. Serious labor market rigidities constrain job growth, and the informal labor market accounts for a large proportion of employment. Stagflation engendered by the eurozone crisis presents monumental monetary policy challenges.

       
       
Read more about Italy Economy.
        See more from the 2013 Index.

   

OVERALL SCORE BY COUNTRY:


Hong Kong 89.3
Singapore 88
Australia 82.6
New Zealand 81.4
Switzerland 81
Canada 79.4
Chile 79
Mauritius 76.9
Denmark 76.1
United States 76
Ireland 75.7
Bahrain 75.5
Estonia 75.3
United Kingdom 74.8
Luxembourg 74.2
Finland 74
The Netherlands 73.5
Sweden 72.9
Germany 72.8
Taiwan 72.7
Georgia 72.2
Iceland 72.1
Lithuania 72.1
Austria 71.8
Japan 71.8
Macau 71.7
Qatar 71.3
United Arab Emirates 71.1
Czech Republic 70.9
Botswana 70.6
Norway 70.5
Jordan 70.4
Saint Lucia 70.4
South Korea 70.3
The Bahamas 70.1
Uruguay  69.7
Colombia 69.6
Armenia 69.4
Barbados 69.3
Belgium 69.2
Cyprus 69
Slovakia 68.7
Macedonia 68.2
Peru 68.2
Oman 68.1
Spain 68
Malta 67.5
Hungary  67.3
Costa Rica  67
Mexico 67
Israel 66.9
Jamaica  66.8
El Salvador  66.7
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 66.7
Latvia 66.5
Malaysia  66.1
Poland 66
Albania 65.2
Romania 65.1
Bulgaria 65
France 64.1
Rwanda 64.1
Thailand  64.1
Dominica 63.9
Cape Verde 63.7
Kuwait 63.1
Portugal 63.1
Kazakhstan 63
Turkey 62.9
Montenegro 62.6
Panama  62.5
Trinidad and Tobago 62.3
Madagascar 62
South Africa 61.8
Mongolia 61.7
Slovenia 61.7
Croatia 61.3
Ghana 61.3
Paraguay  61.1
Uganda 61.1
Sri Lanka 60.7
Italy 60.6
Saudi Arabia 60.6
Namibia 60.3
Guatemala  60
Burkina Faso 59.9
Azerbaijan 59.7
Dominican Republic 59.7
Kyrgyz Republic  59.6
Morocco 59.6
Lebanon 59.5
The Gambia 58.8
Zambia 58.7
Serbia  58.6
Cambodia 58.5
Honduras  58.4
The Philippines 58.2
Tanzania 57.9
Gabon 57.8
Brazil 57.7
Benin 57.6
Belize 57.3
Bosnia and Herzegovina 57.3
Fiji 57.2
Swaziland 57.2
Samoa 57.1
Tunisia 57
Indonesia 56.9
Nicaragua  56.6
Vanuatu 56.6
Mali 56.4
Tonga 56
Kenya 55.9
Yemen 55.9
Moldova 55.5
Senegal 55.5
Greece 55.4
Malawi 55.3
India 55.2
Nigeria 55.1
Pakistan  55.1
Bhutan 55
Mozambique  55
Seychelles 54.9
Egypt 54.8
Côte d'Ivoire  54.1
Djibouti 53.9
Niger 53.9
Guyana 53.8
Papua New Guinea 53.6
Tajikistan 53.4
Bangladesh  52.6
Cameroon 52.3
Mauritania 52.3
Suriname 52
China 51.9
Guinea 51.2
Guinea-Bissau 51.1
Russia 51.1
Vietnam 51
Central African Republic 50.4
Nepal 50.4
Laos 50.1
Micronesia 50.1
Algeria 49.6
Ethiopia 49.4
Liberia 49.3
Burundi 49
Maldives 49
Togo 48.8
Sierra Leone 48.3
Haiti 48.1
Belarus 48
São Tomé and Príncipe  48
Bolivia 47.9
Lesotho 47.9
Comoros 47.5
Angola 47.3
Ecuador 46.9
Argentina 46.7
Ukraine 46.3
Uzbekistan 46
Kiribati 45.9
Chad 45.2
Solomon Islands 45
Timor-Leste 43.7
Republic of Congo  43.5
Iran 43.2
Turkmenistan 42.6
Equatorial Guinea 42.3
Democratic Republic of Congo 39.6
Burma 39.2
Eritrea 36.3
Venezuela  36.1
Zimbabwe 28.6
Cuba 28.5
North Korea 1.5

December 16, 2012

How successful is your country?


Goldman in his recent study notes that the competitive strengths of companies often stem from the advantages of the countries they reside in.

These include a combination of resource availability (food, energy, mining and others), demographics, trade positioning, infrastructure quality and above all, the presence of strong, inclusive institutions that encourage innovation.

So, what follows is Goldman's attempt to map the various success drivers of the world’s countries.

Goldman divides the drivers into four categories:

Innovation
Patents per capita, R&D as a percentage of GDP, venture capital as a percentage of GDP and the birth rate of companies.

Institutions
Confidence in national institutions, days aken to enforce a contract, the cost of starting a business and the GINI co-efficient that measures income inequality.

Resources
Net crude oil exports/(imports) as a percentage of consumption, per capita food surplus/(deficit), copper + iron ore + aluminum surplus/(deficit) and retirees as a percentage of population.

Infrastructure
Transport (airports per capita, railways per sq km), electricity production per capita and internet penetration.
Italy again scores among the worst countries in Europe just after Greece; in brief its institutions are weak, Internet penetration is appalling and when it comes to enforce contracts; it is the worst country in Europe and far behind many third world countries like Nigeria or Kenya who rank much better than Italy on this aspect.


The overall scorecard...





and a close up on Europe... (click image for huge version)


Source: Goldman Sachs

November 11, 2012

Heather Brooke: My battle to expose government corruption

Our leaders need to be held accountable, says journalist Heather Brooke. And she should know: Brooke uncovered the British Parliamentary financial expenses that led to a major political scandal in 2009. She urges us to ask our leaders questions through platforms like Freedom of Information requests -- and to finally get some answers.
Worth listening carefully!


September 25, 2012

Economic Freedom of the World


The Fraser Institute's massive volume on the Economic Freedom Of The World - based on the following five factors: Size of Government, Legal System & Property Rights, Sound Money, Freedom to Trade Internationally, and Regulation - covers 42 variables with the goal of quantifying the key ingredients of economic freedom.
When it comes to Europe, Italy manages to leave behind Greece by 2 positions achieving a very dishonourable 83rd position, Spain and Ireland respectively 34th and 12th stays among the most free economies in the world, Portugal is still green in the 60th while Greece at 81 still manage to fare better than Italy.

For those interested to find out what is making Italy so appalling please check the full data below.









September 2, 2012

Italian Revenue original tax meter: Napkinmeter


The Italian Government has deployed an unusual system to track tax dodgers in Italy, in the case of restaurant owners the Italian Revenue Authority is using a system called "Tovagliometro" o "Farinometro"  literally translated as napkinmeter or flourmeter to estimate how many clients a restaurant or a bakery had and the amount of revenue generated.

It consists of the following; they use consumption of the above items to estimate the amount of activity in the establishment and they send a tax request to the activity based on such calculation. The activity is forced to pay the tax in advance based on such calculation, of course businesses can ask for a revision of this decision which normally takes from 12 to 24 months to be completed if admitted.
The Italian courts following appeals from vexed businesses has confirmed the validity of such tools and is endorsing new creative ways to estimate tax evasion with everyday items regardless of their usage.
The fact that a Tax Agency is using such methods is a clear signal how corrupt is the situation in Italy and how desperate is the government to collect Revenue.
Stockpiling has become a dangerous activity for Italian businesses, if you buy too many napkins you could be taxed to death!

From FiscoOggi (translated from Italian via Google):

Once Upon a Time tovagliometro, now comes the bottigliometro. The Court of legitimacy, with ruling no. 17408 of July 23, gives equal dignity to both the build tools presumptive income. Logic dictates, in fact, that the reasoning according to which, for each room, the client of shift work towards a single napkin and, therefore, the "net" number of napkins used (ie not comprising those used for different purposes, such as meals employees) is the real representation of meals actually "served" can be naturally transferred to the consumption of mineral water bottles.For the Supreme Court, "the consumption of mineral water must be considered a fundamental ingredient, if not essential, in both food and drink purchased in the restaurant industry that the pizza."
It all began, in fact, a tax audit, conducted by the Bureau of Internal Revenue Caserta in a restaurant-pizzeria, which results in an adjustment of the increase in turnover and the subsequent recovery in taxation of a higher taxable income.The investigation, which started from the assumption that the company had not adapted to field studies, was carried out taking into account the fact that food purchased were not proportionate to the number of meals indicated in the receipts. The office, in particular, concentrated control over the consumption of bottles of mineral water, proceeding, then, for presumptions.
The taxpayer has no recourse to the Supreme Court and is based on two reasons:

    
despite the assumed office, it is considered reasonable and consistent with industry studies. The Regional Tax Commission, therefore, did not take into account the lack of basis for the assessment
    
its accounting records are regular, so there may be legitimate the inductive method applied against it (and even if the criterion used was "legal", it would be more realistic if it is based on other factors such as the consumption of gas, electricity , tablecloths, napkins, etc.).
The judgment of legitimacyAs anticipated, the judges of the Supreme Court, in rejecting the appeal of the company, have found fertile ground in their own settled case-law. In other similar occasions, for example, have argued that "in the test for presumptions, the relationship between the known fact that unknown and must not have character of necessity, it being sufficient that the existence of the fact to prove resulting as a consequence of the known fact in the same way of fees reasonable probability (see Supreme Court, judgments nos. 51/1999, 6465/2002, 9884/2002). "For the togas of legitimacy, the consumption of mineral water in a restaurant-pizzeria (as well as that of napkins), known fact, it may well become a test which suggests the number of meals actually served, unknown fact. This is because, according to "standards of reasonable probability," it can be shown that the existence of the latter is a consequence of the first.In addition, "the flexibility instrument is presumptive origin and foundation of their art. 53 of the Constitution, not being able to admit that the income is determined automatically, no matter what is the ability to pay of the person tested. "

August 4, 2012

Catalonia unable to pay salaries

If Rajoy is opening to a full scale bailout of the Spain the situation is also rapidly deteriorating at regional level, Catalonia on the wealthiest regions of Spain is facing an effective shutdown if bailot money will not be provided soon by the central Spanish government.

El Pais reports Catalonia Will Not Pay Hospitals or Private Centers and 100,000 workers are affected.


Google Translation Below:

This month, the Government of Catalona cannot tackle  payments owed to hospitals, schools, residences, social organizations, and children in care centers and workshops. These are the services provided by entities, public and private, funded by the Government.
The move affects up to 7,500 associations and some 100,000 workers, according to the third sector.

The news that the Government could not meet its commitments this month was confirmed on Monday after several days of negotiations with the affected entities. Sources from the Departments of Health and Welfare explained ten days ago it "could not meet the payments this month." Welfare, however, has ensured that other non-contributory pensions paid or the minimum income.

The Catalan Association of Relief calculated that 63% of companies cannot meet the payroll this month.
This is not the first time that the Government is obliged to defer payment. It happened last September when it could only address 65% of the amount and the rest was paid by the end of the year.

March 25, 2012

Obama escalate Security Preparedness


Quietly, and with little fanfare, President Obama signed a “National Defense Resources Preparedness” Executive Order on Friday. As the name suggests, the order intends to shore up the country’s national defense resources in advance of a national emergency.

To be fair, this is not the first time that such an order has been written. Presidents Bush (II), Clinton, Reagan, and even Eisenhower provided directives in the same spirit as President Obama’s order– providing some level of government commandeering in times of national emergency.

In the past, these orders have related to things like production capacity for defense contractors, or giving FEMA authority to resolve disputes between other departments in federally designated emergency areas.

President Obama’s order, however, takes things much, much further.

The order vastly expands the role of Homeland Security.
DHS now has authority to direct the emergency preparedness of every other government department. The Secretary of Homeland Security has effectively become the Emergency Czar.
He will have oversight of “all other national defense programs, including civil defense and continuity of Government.”

The order further provides for an effective nationalization of the entire US economy in the event of an emergency.
The Secretary of Labor, for example, will “collect and maintain data necessary to make a continuing appraisal of the Nation’s workforce needs for purposes of national defense” and then “formulate plans, programs, and policies for meeting the labor requirements of actions to be taken for national defense purposes.”
The purpose of this order, for example, is to “take actions necessary to ensure the availability of adequate resources and production capability, including services and critical technology, for national defense requirements;”
It goes on to list ‘adequate resources’:
(i) “all forms of energy including petroleum, gas (both natural and manufactured), electricity, solid fuels… solar, wind, other types of renewable energy, atomic energy”, etc.
(ii) “all usable water, from all sources, within the jurisdiction of the United States, that can be managed, controlled, and allocated to meet emergency requirements…”
(iii) “all commodities and products… that are capable of being ingested by either human beings or animals…”
(iv) “drugs, biological products, medical devices, materials, facilities, health supplies, services and equipment required to diagnose, mitigate or prevent the impairment of, improve, treat, cure, or restore the physical or mental health conditions of the population.”
Obama’s executive order puts all of these resources under control of the government and allocates them exclusively to meet the needs of government.

Furthermore, NSA’s new Utah spy center will collect and archive the complete contents of every email, tweet, Facebook post, Google search, phone call, and text message.

Is the US Government getting ready for something nasty coming?

August 6, 2011

Great Depression 2.0

FDR Memorial Site, Washington DC
Yesterday in my post after hearing the declaration of Prime Minister Berlusconi I wrote my conclusion that Italy had lost effectively sovereignty becoming a protectorate of the ECB.
Today we have even an official confirmation that Italy is now administered by the ECB under mandate of France and Germany which are the new masters of the country and will dictate to Trichet (then Draghi in October) what he has to order Italian politicians to do.
This is major news which has been reported so far by only one Italian Newspaper Repubblica.
EU president Van Rompuy and EU Commissioner Olli Rehn contacted Berlusconi and made clear that either Berlusconi follow orders or it is the end game.
It has been confirmed that France, Germany and the USA have reached the conclusion there is no other solution than seizing power in Italy and run the country as they see fit in order to prevent its default and an economic armageddon.
Both the EU and Washington have decided with the "Washington Consensus" that unreliable governments will fall under protectorate rules, bailout money provided only if following orders.
Berlusconi and the entire Italian political class will be mere puppets who will enforce any order they receive regardless of the electorate opinion. After all, the current state of Italian politics is perfect, Italian voters are currently unable to decide the name of the person they elect, they can only decide which party to vote, the name of the elected MPs are decided by the party, this is causing a major disconnection of responsibility toward the electorate which favour the implementation of blood and tears austerity measures.
Italian MPs do not have any allegiance to their voters but only to their party and their boss and therefore will not have any constraint in following the lead when requested to.
Berlusconi has been forced to accept the dikat but if with his collapsing popularity both among the electorate and with other coalition parties he will be able to implement it, well this is a different story.
Tremonti is right when he said yesterday that this week the world has changed forever, we are in uncharted territory and following US credit rating downgrade we are on the verge a major financial breakdown. Even China's traditionally diplomatic aplombe is being tested with furious official attacks to the US Government.
Events are turning sour fast and the choices left to solve the Global Crisis are getting worse every day.
News from Germany today are complicating things even more: Der Spiegel anticipated today
that Germany is opposing any EFSF increase and any bailout of Italy, it appears it is opposing also ECB purchase of Italian bonds and it is pretending harsh cuts in Italy regardless.
According to Daiwa's Head of Economic Research, Grant Lewis, the increase of the EFSF should reach the astonishing amount of 3.5 trillion euro this is the only act that could convince financial markets of euro area resolve to save Italy and Spain. Lewis says: "France, Germany contribution to EFSF’s capital would increase to 80% if Spain, Italy had to drop out of guarantee structure. France, German contingent liabilities would be > 50% of GDP if EFSF expanded; added to France, Germany current debt it may trigger downgrades to both countries."
There is no safe option anymore if the debt crisis spreads to France as it is becoming probable given the exposure of France to Italian Treasury bonds for over 25% of its GDP, the bailout system will become useless, if they pursue harsh austerity measures in Italy the country will start to paralyse ending like Greece and given the size of the Italian economy effectively pushing the global economy in Depression zone.
If Germany is successful in blocking both the EFSF increase and the ECB purchase of Italian bonds, the Eurozone is dead and will break apart.
Even if the Italian government has agreed in principle to the enforced austerity will face a revolt both from the opposition, the unions and the Italian people whose patience with a rotten and corrupt Berlusconi's government was reaching boiling point already before this last crisis.
The amount of things that can go wrong and turn into a Black Swan are too many at this stage to discard a possible incoming Great Depression. Brace yourself!

May 19, 2011

Zombie Alert issued by CDC

It sounds as a joke but I swear it is true the United States Government has issued a zombie alert preparadness bulletin, providing tips on how to get prepared should our living deads decide to pay a visit in the future. The full article is available here: http://emergency.cdc.gov/socialmedia/zombies_blog.asp
The article was published by the CDC (Center for Disease Control and Protection), the same CDC that handled so brilliantly the last swine flu pandemia that killed less people than a normal flu and filled the pockets of pharmaceutical corporations.
Not sure when they are serious and when joking but it is a pretty funny article provided that people does not take it seriously and start shooting slow-moving folks.
Well done CDC you desperately needed some ratings boosts after your recent blunders, I would suggest an alien invasion next week.

May 9, 2009

Bankruptcy Outsourcing!

A disturbing trend in a global economy is the bankruptcy outsourcing we are starting to witness in the world.


Global companies are taking bail-outs from different countries and in some cases from more than one at the same time. Bail-outs are becoming for some companies a new form of revenue. GM for example has been bailed-out from the Canadian government after scaremongering plant closures in Ontario. Unicredit the Italian bank which has invested and lent heavily in Eastern Europe has been supported by the Polish and Austrian government. Greek banks have asked contributions to Eastern European countries to leave their capitals in the country and after some weeks moved back to Athens a big bulk of their assets.


Wherever corporations have employment and financial leverage with the local government a bail-out request is being put forward. It is not always a request for money but also a request for favours and deregulation, economic crisis is allowing companies to obtain advantages that until 1 year ago were considered serious infringements. Eastern European governments not notoriously rigid in their supervision are in this period closing not one but both eyes. Companies are threatening that if ad hoc measures are not undertaken their financial situation could be deteriorating and they would be left with no choice than moving their assets and capitals to different location.
Taxpayers are effectively paying a bribe to corporations for the luxury of keeping inefficient, corrupt and broke companies in their backyard. If a company is broke should be allowed to fail, we are delaying the inevitable buying some time with our savings.


Though the interesting scenario especially in Europe will be to assist to the collapse of one of those corporations, which country will take the paternity of a fiasco and will make its citizen pay for this? how fast and how seriously the economical infection will spread to other involved countries?


Unfortunately we have a monetary union in Europe but we do not have yet a single reference for crisis like this, ECB cannot and will not cover the losses leaving to local central banks such issues. The Iceland-England quarrel on the lost assets of UK councils who invested in the failed Icelandic banks teaches us a lesson on how this issue can bring to a fracture or collapse of the European cooperation. If countries will start to freeze each other investments and assets to cover the losses we will have a Great Depression 2.0 in a matter of weeks.