Italy today has been practically declared bankrupt by the ECB.
ECB will stop purchasing Italian and Spanish bonds therefore condemning Italy to be in default by October should this not change. It could be scare tactics to enforce compliance from the Italian government or could be in the worst case for Italians a throw the towel and brace for impact.
Greece is going to be finally bankrupt in a matter of days but the decision of Germany to leave Greece to itself aside from the similarities between Greek and Italian insanity is in part functional to set a precedent and specifically for the Italians who are next in line.
The reality is that Greece was doomed long time ago and regardless of the initial damage a Greek default will not precipitate Armageddon, Italy on the contrary is the real deal.
True, German banks exposure to Greek debt will be a major blow but is nothing that can put the Germany economy at risk.
Italy is the end game for the Euro and Europe and unfortunately Europe does not know anymore what to do with a totally insane Italian government who is completely alienated from the reality.
Berlusconi had its use when it came in the past to control an important country, his weakness and insanity was useful in manipulating the Italian government to follow orders when needed.
Unfortunately the monster has escaped from the cage and Berlusconi's insanity which was object of fun and smirks in diplomatic circles is turning to nightmare.
Berlusconi has not spent a single word so far on the dangers the country is incurring aside from brief and pathetic jingles on how Italy is in better shape than other European countries and everything is fine; even today with the Italian economy crumbling down he had thoughts only in finding a way to block judges from prosecuting him for countless crimes.
He still had time today to go to public events proclaiming the following "I feel a dramatic sense of powerlessness"; just what the country needed to lose the little confidence left abroad.
It seems Italian society at large has become a Kafka's world where the normality is turned upside down, where phrases that in every other country would bring to an insurrection in Italy are not raising even an eyebrow.
People go on living their distorted reality without any reaction to what is clearly insanity made normality.
Italy has already been put under EU protectorate.
EU thought that being able to manipulate Berlusconi would win compliance to its diktats but unfortunately for them they did not factor the ego and survival instinct of Berlusconi.
As usual the great con artist has unleashed every kind of tricks and magic, he is still owing 90% of the media in Italy so He still has plenty of aces to play via manipulation of the public opinion.
If the European strong powers thought they could keep him in power as a puppet to pass through every kind of unpopular measures well they have to face now a sinking ship and a sinking captain.
Popular resentment is running high regardless of Berlusconi's brainwashing and therefore his preservation instinct does not make him any more complaint to the EU's diktats.
This is getting worst and I would not be surprised once the emergency has passed that Berlusconi will incur a faith similar to his best buddy Gaddafi.
In the meanwhile the situation in Italy is getting nuts sort of Titanic's band-playing-while-ship-sinking while Berlusconi is sticking to his chair regardless of every kind of trash being thrown at him.
He is clearly negotiating his leave from power. He is well aware he will go to prison in the best case scenario as soon as he will no longer be the Prime Minister and he is simply trying to save his butt.
Unfortunately for Italy the amount of collateral damage he will cause with his actions will be long felt by the future generations.
Showing posts with label gaddafi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gaddafi. Show all posts
September 9, 2011
August 21, 2011
Libya's war close to end, who is next?
It appears the unreported and unofficial war in Libya could be close to an end. It appears, according to mainstream media, rebels are close to the capital and our fearless leader Gaddafi is close to throwing the towel and leave the ring. Regardless of the reliability of this information is clear that strong powers want the war ended and fast.
Together with the latest news from Syria this is indicating we are getting closer to the turning point I was mentioning at the start of the Libyan war.
Once Libya will be under control and it could be a matter of months things will turn nasty, once the Libyan oil will be on the grid again the situation will unravel fast. It seems we are facing a crisis escalation on both the military and financial side, the financial domino both in Europe and the USA is falling and a major rush to get control of Libyan oil reserves is becoming imperative at this point.
To understand this chess game is possible only if we consider the broader picture, the financial crisis, the war in Libya and the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa are all connected pieces of a bigger puzzle.
The reality is that the financial system has reached a terminal stage, leverage is getting harder and harder and cash injection has reached a structural limit, there is not enough money to bailout the black hole of debt created and peak oil is already here making impossible to go back to growth and inflate ourselves out of this mess.
Growth is not available because the current system has reached the maximum capacity and is deflating fast while debt has reached levels never seen before in history.
There are few options left either declare insolvency and bring the entire system down or go to war and make harsh austerity a war necessity for the population while stealthily bankrupting the western world and all its creditors.
In this situation there is a rush to control and manage the reduced resources available and gain the preservation or well reduced deterioration of the population's standard of life together with a competitive advantage over other nations who are not so blessed of controlling those essential resources.
It is a strategic imperative for every nation to get access by any necessary mean to strategic resources whose lack would bring to an halt the economy and its democracy.
No wonder China is getting very jittery lately although regardless of its strategic links with Iran will not react aside from verbal shows when the situation will escalate.
After all should China lose access to the western world markets and treasuries It would risk economical and social collapse, they will play along with US and EU since they are into the same game, they will get concessions due to their symbiotic relation with the West after all the West still need China's cheap productive capacity but they are caught into the same game all right.
The next target is clearly Syria, which has been thrown into chaos already although with this week clear innuendo from Obama is clearly the next regime to be toppled down as soon as the major Libyan headache will be solved.
The only major variable in this scenario is Turkey, the situation is very volatile at this moment with the confrontation between the Muslim Erdogan's government and the secular Turkish Army, how Turkey, a member of NATO will play this game is a major diplomatic variable to be considered.
One thing is clear Middle East and Central Asia is the prize in this dangerous power game and this could escalate quickly if financial distress will raise in the following months.
Together with the latest news from Syria this is indicating we are getting closer to the turning point I was mentioning at the start of the Libyan war.
Once Libya will be under control and it could be a matter of months things will turn nasty, once the Libyan oil will be on the grid again the situation will unravel fast. It seems we are facing a crisis escalation on both the military and financial side, the financial domino both in Europe and the USA is falling and a major rush to get control of Libyan oil reserves is becoming imperative at this point.
To understand this chess game is possible only if we consider the broader picture, the financial crisis, the war in Libya and the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa are all connected pieces of a bigger puzzle.
The reality is that the financial system has reached a terminal stage, leverage is getting harder and harder and cash injection has reached a structural limit, there is not enough money to bailout the black hole of debt created and peak oil is already here making impossible to go back to growth and inflate ourselves out of this mess.
Growth is not available because the current system has reached the maximum capacity and is deflating fast while debt has reached levels never seen before in history.
There are few options left either declare insolvency and bring the entire system down or go to war and make harsh austerity a war necessity for the population while stealthily bankrupting the western world and all its creditors.
In this situation there is a rush to control and manage the reduced resources available and gain the preservation or well reduced deterioration of the population's standard of life together with a competitive advantage over other nations who are not so blessed of controlling those essential resources.
It is a strategic imperative for every nation to get access by any necessary mean to strategic resources whose lack would bring to an halt the economy and its democracy.
No wonder China is getting very jittery lately although regardless of its strategic links with Iran will not react aside from verbal shows when the situation will escalate.
After all should China lose access to the western world markets and treasuries It would risk economical and social collapse, they will play along with US and EU since they are into the same game, they will get concessions due to their symbiotic relation with the West after all the West still need China's cheap productive capacity but they are caught into the same game all right.
The next target is clearly Syria, which has been thrown into chaos already although with this week clear innuendo from Obama is clearly the next regime to be toppled down as soon as the major Libyan headache will be solved.
The only major variable in this scenario is Turkey, the situation is very volatile at this moment with the confrontation between the Muslim Erdogan's government and the secular Turkish Army, how Turkey, a member of NATO will play this game is a major diplomatic variable to be considered.
One thing is clear Middle East and Central Asia is the prize in this dangerous power game and this could escalate quickly if financial distress will raise in the following months.
June 11, 2011
NATO´s Middle East Chess Game
Every good chess player knows that before striking the opponent you want to carefully position your pieces on the board and when ready then unleash hell.
NATO is playing the same game in North Africa and Middle East, toppling down every dictator and replacing it with a military junta as in Egypt with no clear leader and easy to be controlled and replaced if the case, they also get a democratic branding from the support of western countries together with a generous support package to keep things calm among the population.
The choice of countries is not casual, all of them have a strategic relevance either in oil production or logistics, as you can see below Egypt and Yemen are vital to oil supplies, Bahrain is vital to both oil production and logistics and Libya is a perfect replacement for oil from the Middle East should an Iranian blockade take place in Strait of Ormuz, the oil chockpoint where 50% of the world´s seaborne oil transits daily.
Libya has some of the biggest and most proven oil reserves -- 43.6 billion barrels -- outside Saudi Arabia, and some of the best drilling prospects. Libya's oil is unusually "sweet" and "light," fundamentally is high-quality crude oil providing a better value than Saudi one should supplies from the Arabian region be disrupted at any stage. And furthermore Libya is close to Europe making easier to transit oil to the European and American markets while avoiding any possible disruption when the situation in the Middle East will escalate.
No doubt that once that Libyan oil fields will be under NATO control and production will be re-established a new front of the New Resource War we entered into will be opened most probably directly on the Iranian borders.
Iran is well aware of this and since many years its government has been counteracting to the siege that is being undertaken on its borders. After all Iraq on the western border and Afghanistan on the eastern border are under US control, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States on his southern border are close US Allies and hosting major military bases. Pakistan on his south eastern border is without leadership and in lack of control while allowing the CIA to do whatever they want on its territory included staging a farsical attack to Osama Bin Laden on the outskirts of their capital. The Iranian northern borders are with Turkey a close US ally and not a good friend of Iran and the Caucasus republics of Russia which aside from Azerbaijan are normally hostile to Iran, the only friendly border at least for now is the one with Turkmenistan which is also vital for Iranian exports to China and Central Asia.
When the tension with Iran will mount and if a full scale war will explode the first victim will be the economy, The Strait of Ormuz will be shut down immediately and oil prices will explode to historical heights, a new great depression will start and as a consequence demand destruction will allow to make up for the shortfalls in production. If NATO plans will succeed Middle East will become a large battlefield for the core resources we covet and we cannot live without. Strange world where you have to wish that a dictator like Gaddafi will live another day.
NATO is playing the same game in North Africa and Middle East, toppling down every dictator and replacing it with a military junta as in Egypt with no clear leader and easy to be controlled and replaced if the case, they also get a democratic branding from the support of western countries together with a generous support package to keep things calm among the population.
The choice of countries is not casual, all of them have a strategic relevance either in oil production or logistics, as you can see below Egypt and Yemen are vital to oil supplies, Bahrain is vital to both oil production and logistics and Libya is a perfect replacement for oil from the Middle East should an Iranian blockade take place in Strait of Ormuz, the oil chockpoint where 50% of the world´s seaborne oil transits daily.
Libya has some of the biggest and most proven oil reserves -- 43.6 billion barrels -- outside Saudi Arabia, and some of the best drilling prospects. Libya's oil is unusually "sweet" and "light," fundamentally is high-quality crude oil providing a better value than Saudi one should supplies from the Arabian region be disrupted at any stage. And furthermore Libya is close to Europe making easier to transit oil to the European and American markets while avoiding any possible disruption when the situation in the Middle East will escalate.
No doubt that once that Libyan oil fields will be under NATO control and production will be re-established a new front of the New Resource War we entered into will be opened most probably directly on the Iranian borders.
Iran is well aware of this and since many years its government has been counteracting to the siege that is being undertaken on its borders. After all Iraq on the western border and Afghanistan on the eastern border are under US control, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States on his southern border are close US Allies and hosting major military bases. Pakistan on his south eastern border is without leadership and in lack of control while allowing the CIA to do whatever they want on its territory included staging a farsical attack to Osama Bin Laden on the outskirts of their capital. The Iranian northern borders are with Turkey a close US ally and not a good friend of Iran and the Caucasus republics of Russia which aside from Azerbaijan are normally hostile to Iran, the only friendly border at least for now is the one with Turkmenistan which is also vital for Iranian exports to China and Central Asia.
When the tension with Iran will mount and if a full scale war will explode the first victim will be the economy, The Strait of Ormuz will be shut down immediately and oil prices will explode to historical heights, a new great depression will start and as a consequence demand destruction will allow to make up for the shortfalls in production. If NATO plans will succeed Middle East will become a large battlefield for the core resources we covet and we cannot live without. Strange world where you have to wish that a dictator like Gaddafi will live another day.
March 19, 2011
Libya: the new Iraq?
Gaddafi has declared a cease after the UN approved a no-fly zone and authorized air strikes to protect the civilians/rebels in the eastern part of the country.
That was quite a good move on his behalf, not only he was complying to UN deliberation making harder for Europe and USA to justify an attack but furthermore the aggressive US reply to his olive branch has highlighted even to those who were not yet convinced that regardless of any action the attack and if necessary invasion will proceed as scheduled.
Obama stated few hours ago that a cease fire is not enough and that Gaddafi's troops must withdraw from recently conquered cities in the east of Libya, why this reaction? well let us see a map of Libya to understand what is going on:
As you can see the majority and the richest oil fields are located in eastern Libya, everything east of Sirt is the trophy prize Europe and USA want to get their hands onto.
Lybian troops have regained control of almost all eastern Libya and were getting close to Benghazi before cease fire. Gaddafi had nothing to lose to declare a cease fire in the current situation, he has complete control of all the oil terminals aside from Al Hariqa and of all the refineries and ports aside from Benghazi, so he is now controlling 90% of the output and supply channels of the country putting him in a position again to dictate terms to a oil-starved western world.
Obama made it clear in his last speech that they are not interested to openings or dialogues and that Gaddafi can save himself only by ceding control of half of his country to the rebels which are clearly pro-western and undoubtedly ready to do whatever their western sponsors will tell them to do.
The unprecedented efficiency of the United Nations in reaching a lightning decision on a thorny issue and approving military action against Gaddafi should have surprised everyone but then everyone is concerned with Japan and with the economy, a no-fly zone resolution is not a very interesting tweet those days.
The reality though is that a no-fly zone is meant only to avoid the failure of a western created revolution and the seizure of the oil fields in eastern Libya. Regardless, what is clear is that attacks will start by hook or by crook and that if a no-fly zone will not be enough to guarantee the victory of the rebels, a more decisive military intervention will follow. If the western world will be able to delegate the dirty job to the Libyan rebels and then bribe them out with concessions will not intervene on the ground if not we could see a military invasion in a matter of weeks.
The oil crisis time bomb is ticking and as shown by the unprecedented rush to the arms of France and England invoking an attack in a matter of hours the solution can be one and only, the disappearance of Gaddafi and a second Iraq split on a west-east fault that I'm sure will not fail to catch again media attention. The only question is if the United States will get involved or will rather delegate this one to their european allies.
One thing for sure we will not miss Gaddafi.
That was quite a good move on his behalf, not only he was complying to UN deliberation making harder for Europe and USA to justify an attack but furthermore the aggressive US reply to his olive branch has highlighted even to those who were not yet convinced that regardless of any action the attack and if necessary invasion will proceed as scheduled.
Obama stated few hours ago that a cease fire is not enough and that Gaddafi's troops must withdraw from recently conquered cities in the east of Libya, why this reaction? well let us see a map of Libya to understand what is going on:
As you can see the majority and the richest oil fields are located in eastern Libya, everything east of Sirt is the trophy prize Europe and USA want to get their hands onto.
Lybian troops have regained control of almost all eastern Libya and were getting close to Benghazi before cease fire. Gaddafi had nothing to lose to declare a cease fire in the current situation, he has complete control of all the oil terminals aside from Al Hariqa and of all the refineries and ports aside from Benghazi, so he is now controlling 90% of the output and supply channels of the country putting him in a position again to dictate terms to a oil-starved western world.
Obama made it clear in his last speech that they are not interested to openings or dialogues and that Gaddafi can save himself only by ceding control of half of his country to the rebels which are clearly pro-western and undoubtedly ready to do whatever their western sponsors will tell them to do.
The unprecedented efficiency of the United Nations in reaching a lightning decision on a thorny issue and approving military action against Gaddafi should have surprised everyone but then everyone is concerned with Japan and with the economy, a no-fly zone resolution is not a very interesting tweet those days.
The reality though is that a no-fly zone is meant only to avoid the failure of a western created revolution and the seizure of the oil fields in eastern Libya. Regardless, what is clear is that attacks will start by hook or by crook and that if a no-fly zone will not be enough to guarantee the victory of the rebels, a more decisive military intervention will follow. If the western world will be able to delegate the dirty job to the Libyan rebels and then bribe them out with concessions will not intervene on the ground if not we could see a military invasion in a matter of weeks.
The oil crisis time bomb is ticking and as shown by the unprecedented rush to the arms of France and England invoking an attack in a matter of hours the solution can be one and only, the disappearance of Gaddafi and a second Iraq split on a west-east fault that I'm sure will not fail to catch again media attention. The only question is if the United States will get involved or will rather delegate this one to their european allies.
One thing for sure we will not miss Gaddafi.
March 18, 2011
Libya threatens retaliation if attacked
Image via WikipediaFrom Reuters:
Any foreign attack on Libya will endanger air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean basin and expose the area to both short and long term risks, the Defence Ministry said in a statement broadcast on Libyan television.
The statement said Libya would strike back at civilian and foreign targets if the country comes under attack from foreign forces.
"Any foreign military act against Libya will expose all air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea to danger and civilian and military (facilities) will become targets of Libya's counter-attack," said the statement.
"The Mediterranean basin will face danger not just in the short-term, but also in the long-term," it said.
February 23, 2011
Gaddafi could have ordered sabotage of oil facilities
Image via WikipediaShould he proceed and destroy the country's oil infrastructure, which exports over 1.5 million barrels of crude a day, mostly to Italy, Europe could face big troubles.
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